Yuku free message boards

Time for some LettersTime speculation while we wait for Jim to do his duty and produce another chapter.
Assumptions.

Apr 25, 1915
Entente landing at Gallipoli.

May 2, 1915.
Beginning of Gorlice-Tarnow offensive.

May 23, 1915.
Italy does not join the Entente. This is due to the German naval victory at Dogger Bank.

May 31, 1915. Skagerrakschlacht.
The RN loses its remaining BCs plus a pile of BBs. The HSF loses no dreadnoughts.

June 18, 1915
RN blockade squadron destroyed off New York City by TF Hanzik.

Jun 29, 1915
Gallipoli campaign ends. This is a huge propaganda victory for the Central Powers, ending any chance for Italy and/or Romania to join the Entente. It also ends the need for an immediate invasion of Serbia, to open a proper supply line to the Ottomans.

Mid July 1915. Butterfly effects from early end to Gallipoli.
1. The German Alpenkorps division is reassigned to the Vosges. This allows the Heer to disband one of the Landwehr divisions defending that section of the front.
2. 6 (of 9 total) KuK infantry divisions on the Isonzo front are fed into Gorlice-Tarnow as reinforcements.
3. 2 KuK infantry divisions on the Isonzo front are used to occupy the Albanian port of Durazzo.

August 26, 1915.
Austrian Field Marshall Conrad launches a major offensive with the intention of capturing Kiev. In LettersTime Heeresgruppe Mackensen will attack simultaneously with the objective of capturing Pskov.

Sep 8, 1915.
Czar Nicholas II assumes personal command of the Russian army.

September 15, 1915.
A sortie by the battleships 'Gangut' and 'Petropavlovsk' is interrupted as sailors mutiny due to bad food.

September 22, 1915.
French offensive defeated in Champagne.

September 25 - October 8, 1915
British offensive defeated at Loos (France).

October 1915. Russia falls apart.
1. The Austro-Hungarian offensive towards Kiev is stronger then historical.
2. Heeresgruppe Mackensen is launching a powerful attack towards Pskov.
3. Without Gallipoli the Ottomans are exerting additional pressure on Russia. Gallipoli also has serious morale consequences as the Russians were hoping that the Black Sea shipping route would be reopened.
4. The White Sea commerce interdiction campaign is putting a serious dent in Russian munitions.
5. A delay in the $500 million guaranteed loan to Britain and France means a delay of British and French loans to Russia.

Russian morale collapses and Czar Nicholas gets the blame. In a desperate attempt to save his throne Czar Nicholas appeals to his cousin Kaiser Wilhelm II for mercy. Kaiser Bill decides to help his cousin, against the advice of practically all the German leadership.

11 November 1915. German - Russian Armistice.
Russia will lose the 3 Baltic provinces, Finland and Poland. Otherwise they get to exit the war without penalty. Furthermore Czar Nicholas will be reinstated on the Russian throne at the point of German bayonets.

Spring 1916.
Austria-Hungary and Bulgaria rip Serbia to pieces.

Britain and France can see the hand writing on the wall. They sign a peace treaty with Germany rather then wait for the summer 1916 offensive to decide the issue.
1. France cedes Indochina and some small bits of border territory to Germany.
2. Britain gets to keep the captured German Pacific colonies. Germany will receive Walvis Bay as compensation.
3. Except for these changes the borders of Western Europe and Africa return to where they were in July 1914.

http://www.firstworldwar.com/bio/karl.htm
21 Nov 1916. Karl I becomes emperor of Austria.
1 Apr 1922. Karl I dies of pneumonia.
Who becomes the next emperior of Austria-Hungary?

http://www.firstworldwar.com/bio/horthy.htm
Does Admiral Horthy remain in the KuK Marine or does he pursue a political career?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Gallipoli
19 Feb 1915. Naval bombardment begins at Gallipoli.
25 Apr 1915. 5 infantry divisions land at Gallipoli.

http://www.thequickbluefox.com/Tippperary.html
29 June 1915. LettersTime Gallipoli evacuation date.

Do not see Russia folding in 1915. They haven't bled enough yet.

Give it time. It is only July 1915 in LettersTime.

Historical Gorlice-Tarnow.
Began. 1 May 1915.
End. 26 Aug 1915.
Russian casualties. No precise data. However the estimates are huge.
.....Essentially the entire Russian border fortress system.
.....About 2 million total Russian casualties. This averages out to about 1/2 million Russian casualties per month.
.....The German army captured about 850,000 Russian prisoners. This averages out to about 200,000 POWs per month.
.....Russian army strength was 1,243,000 as of Jan 1916 (per Norman Stone). This was 4 months after Gorlice-Tarnow ended. I think it's safe to say that the Russian army was reduced to fewer then 1 million armed soldiers as of 26 Aug 1915.

(In LettersTime there is no Italian front. Consequently the KuK army will have 6 or so additonal infantry divisions at Gorlice-Tarnow. Russian casualties will be even worse.)

LettersTime Gorlice-Tarnow II
Began. 26 Aug 1915.
End. Dec 1915. This is when the historical German 11th Army invasion of Serbia ended.
Russian casualties. 1 million+. Esentially the entire force remaining as of 26 Aug 1915.

Russia will not fight to the last man for Czar Nicholas II. I think they will crack before the end of LettersTime October 1915.