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seasick	Pearl Harbor alerted	Lead	[-]
Posts: 4751 (13-Jun-2008 06:41:58) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	Pearl Harbor as historical except: General Short has observers all around Oahu and IJN aircraft are spotted and reported by telephone to Short's HQ 10 minutes before the attack starts crossing the north shore of the island. About 30 P-40 are in the air and all anti-aircraft guns both Army and Navy are manned and ready. What would end up being different. Say the first wave is less sucessful and the IJN suffers loss of about 30% of their strike aircraft, the second wave also suffers heavy losses. Politically how different would the next few months of the war be in Washington and Tokyo?? Visit Smart Ship Development Lab on the Naval Fiction Board, new episodes weekly.
jim3au		#1	[-]
Posts: 1542 (13-Jun-2008 14:47:03) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	The US fighting men did pretty well considering that surprise was almost total. Effectively it was better than total. Ships had cold boilers. When the Japanese were first detected, there was no reaction. There was no authority to sound a general alert and to take a chance on it being a false alarm. Next to no one was going to authorise a reaction until the bombs started to fall. However, in an alternate universe where the attack is beaten off, one would think that it would change the US approach to the later stages of the war. The US may not feel the need to totally crush the Japanese. They may accept terms.
emc		#2	[-]
Posts: 3842 (13-Jun-2008 15:41:50) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	seasick wrote: Pearl Harbor as historical except: General Short has observers all around Oahu and IJN aircraft are spotted and reported by telephone to Short's HQ 10 minutes before the attack starts crossing the north shore of the island. About 30 P-40 are in the air and all anti-aircraft guns both Army and Navy are manned and ready. What would end up being different. Say the first wave is less sucessful and the IJN suffers loss of about 30% of their strike aircraft, the second wave also suffers heavy losses. Politically how different would the next few months of the war be in Washington and Tokyo?? jim3au is right; the US forces in Hawai'i did quite well considering the general state of the defenses. They did, however, have some warnings of Japanese intentions: Japanese Intentions Revealed As early as July 1941, traffic intelligence reports (i.e., reports founded on traffic analysis) prepared for Admiral Claude C. Bloch, COM-14, and Admiral Kimmel, CINCPACFLT, reflected Japanese air and naval concentrations "awaiting the assumed Southern operations." In fact, from July until 6 December, summaries from Hawaii made frequent allusions to the "formation of Task Forces" and forthcoming "hostile actions" and called attention to similarities between current activities and those which preceded earlier Japanese naval and military campaigns in South China and Indochina.¹⁰³ Bearing in mind that Hawaii could not read the message texts, the accuracy of these reports was truly remarkable." (United States Cryptologic History, HyperWar: Pearl Harbor Revisited "Japanese Intentions Revealed"). Of course, General Short and Admiral Kimmel should have done better with a more explicit warning ("The IJN is planning a major raid on Pearl Harbor"), but they did have general warnings of Japanese hostile intent. Admiral Kimmel and General Short had enough authority to order ammunition distributed, aircraft dispersed, warning radars kept active, patrol aircraft kept flying, and some, but not all, ships kept ready for sea, and a few fighter aircraft placed on alert. Given that an IJN submarine was sighted and fired upon by USS Ward at the harbor entrance at about 6:30am (see Pearl Harbor Attack: USS Ward), the chain of command should have been able to get Admiral Kimmel and General Short out of bed. Presumably, the commanders of the inshore patrol and of Destroyer Division 80 could have alerted their commands ("it's easier to get forgiveness than to get permission" -- old saw) on their own authority. I think the USN and USArmy were still in peace-time mode, where quick action and initiative are not necessarily good for an officer's performance review. I know that it's much easier to find mistakes in judgment 66 years after the fact. On the other issue -- how the politics and conduct of the war would change -- I suspect that the net effect on public sentiment would be nil; the attack on Pearl Harbor would still be seen as an unprovoked attack on US territory, so the ultimate goal of the war would remain Japan's unconditional surender. The IJN would probably be more circumspect in its actions, although the damage to their naval air forces may make the IJN more willing to risk their battleships in surface actions (and I would not want to be in one of the USN's 20 year-old battleships while being fired upon with 18.1in shells), and the USN naval air forces seen as less important.
ATMahan		#3	[-]
Posts: 858 (13-Jun-2008 18:06:37) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	When you say "lose", do you mean "along with the pilot"? Because if that's the case, then I wouldn't want to be the IJN commander who gets to explain THAT to the Emperor; we're talking, what, 30% of 350-odd aircraft and pilots lost, so using abacus about 105 planes and their crews. Given the rates the IJN replaced crews...ouch. Not to mention the damaged planes on top of those. All in all, even if you inflict more damage on PH, I'd say this is a very real short-term problem for the IJN in terms of naval aviation. "To remain ignorant of events that happened before you were born is to remain a child. What is a human life worth unless incorporated into the lives of one's ancestors and set in the context of history?" Marcus Tullius Cicero
Nightwatch2		#4	[-]
Posts: 3677 (13-Jun-2008 19:48:59) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	"IJN aircraft are spotted and reported by telephone to Short's HQ 10 minutes before the attack starts crossing the north shore of the island. About 30 P-40 are in the air" wow! a 10 minute alert launch of 30 fighters and in position!! awesome............ Republican; because not everyone can be on welfare.
NoOneFamous		#5	[-]
Posts: 1270 (13-Jun-2008 19:57:45) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	10 minutes warning? Not sure how many planes you will get into the air, but your warships should be buttoned up and crews at action stations.
bager1968		#6	[-]
Posts: 2988 (13-Jun-2008 21:00:25) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	Actually, he said "10 minutes before the attack starts crossing the north shore of the island". Since it took 16 minutes for them to fly from 20 miles off the north shore across the island from north to south, and they would have taken about 3 minutes to close to 10 miles (200 mph), that makes 13 minutes warning. Japanese timeline: # 0610 - 220 miles north of Oahu Admiral Nagumo orders launching of 1st wave of 183 aircraft off three carriers...2 are lost during takeoff. # 0700 Commander Fuchida flying towards Oahu directs his pilots to home in on local radio station. # 0735 Reconnaissance plane from cruiser CHIKUMA reports main fleet in Pearl Harbor... # 0739 First wave 20 miles off north shore # 0740 1st wave sights North Shore of Oahu...deployment for attack begins... # 0749 Commander Fuchida orders attack...all pilots to begin assault on military bases on Oahu... # 0753 Fuchida radios code to entire Japanese Navy "TORA TORA TORA" indicating success...maximum strategic surprise...Pearl Harbor caught unaware... # 0755 Island wide attack begins...Japanese dive bombers to strike airfields Kaneohe, Ford Island, Hickam, Bellows, Wheeler, Ewa...Aerial torpedo planes begin their run on ships in Pearl Harbor... USS Ward timeline: # 0342 Minesweeper CONDOR sights periscope off Honolulu Harbor ...notifies patrol destroyer WARD to investigate. 0458 Minesweeper CROSSBILL and CONDOR enter Pearl Harbor... defective submarine net remains open. # 0630 Destroyer WARD again notified of submarine sighting this time by supply ship ANTARES off Pearl Harbor entrance...Navy patrol plane (PBY) dispatched to the scene. # 0645 WARD opens fire on target hitting conning tower...as she closes in drops depth charges..air attack by PBY follows. # 0653 WARD'S commander Captain Outerbridge sends message to Commandant 14th Naval District: "We have attacked, fired upon and dropped depth charges upon submarine operating in defensive sea area". # 0715 Capt. Outerbridge's attack message, delayed in decoding is delivered to duty officer, 14th Naval District, and to Admiral Kimmel's duty officer...Japanese launch 2nd wave of 168 assault aircraft... Radar station timeline: # 0702 Private's Lockhard and Elliott of Opana Radar Station pick up what appears to be a flight of unidentified aircraft bearing in 132 miles north of Oahu...discussion follows. # 0706 Private Elliott phones switchboard operator Joseph McDonald at Information Center, Ft. Shafter, telling of a large formation of aircraft approaching the Island. # 0720 Joseph McDonald finding Lt. Tyler in Information Center, calls Opana and patches Lt. Tyler through to Private Lockard who describes the large flight picked up on radar and is told, "Well don't worry about it." ( see Pvt.Joseph McDonald's account under the Survivor Remembrances "An Army Private is one of the 1st to know of the coming attack)" # 0739 Opana Station loses aircraft on radar 20 miles off coast of Oahu due to "dead zone" caused by surrounding hills... Other: # 0733 Important message from Gen Marshall from Washington to Short received via RCA in Honolulu...cablegram has no indication of priority...messenger Tadao Fuchikami proceeds on normal route... in 2002, the sub was found... with two holes in the conning tower... right where Ward's 4" gun crew (reservist midwest farm boys) said they hit.
Nightwatch2		#7	[-]
Posts: 3678 (13-Jun-2008 22:01:16) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	"Actually, he said "10 minutes before the attack starts crossing the north shore of the island". Since it took 16 minutes for them to fly from 20 miles off the north shore across the island from north to south, and they would have taken about 3 minutes to close to 10 miles (200 mph), that makes 13 minutes warning. " granted. it is still pretty eye-watering to alert launch 30 planes and get them into action that fast. just kidding of course, not germane to the intent of the thread. Republican; because not everyone can be on welfare.
StevoJH		#8	[-]
Registered Member Posts: 59 (17-Jun-2008 08:00:46) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	Nightwatch2 wrote: "Actually, he said "10 minutes before the attack starts crossing the north shore of the island". Since it took 16 minutes for them to fly from 20 miles off the north shore across the island from north to south, and they would have taken about 3 minutes to close to 10 miles (200 mph), that makes 13 minutes warning. " granted. it is still pretty eye-watering to alert launch 30 planes and get them into action that fast. just kidding of course, not germane to the intent of the thread. Yes, this isnt England during the battle of britain we are talking about, with every fighter on alert for immediate launch.
binder001	possible scenario...	#9	[-]
Registered Member Posts: 4 (17-Jun-2008 16:03:17) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	OK, Pearl is warned. Attack occurs but with much less damage to the battleline. The other Japanese assaults move forward as planned. The US responds with the War Plan Orange response. The Pacific Fleet sorties with 6-8 old BBs with 3 CV in support with appropriate escorts to engange the Japanese move on the Phillipines. The two fleets meet at sea, the Kido Butai still has equivalent of 4+ full airgroups. Without the forced changes to fleet doctrine and the practice involved in the early "strike back" carrier raids, the Japanese catch the US fleet at sea. Given the effectiveness of the Kates and their torpedoes in 1942 the US fleet probably would have taken some serious losses at sea (those are ships that weren't going to be raised for reuse). So, in this scenario we have a "Savo Island" event off Luzon or Mindanao. Then what happens? The Japanese plan says that the Americans will take their bloody nose and realize the Japanese are masters of the central Pacific and negotiate a settlement that leaves the Greater Southeast Asia Co-prosperity Sphere intact. Maybe it's nationalism, but I see the US as learning a bloody lesson, going on the defensive until the "Two-Ocean Navy" ships are ready and then striking back hard. The original question had to do with the first months of the war, so I predict a different rhythm but a similar result. Japan is dominant at least in the NEI, Malaya and the Phillipines, the US is working on rearming and has to fight its way back. The names of the great battles will be different but the end result is the same. Just one person's opinion.
jlyons97	"The US responds with the War Plan Orange response."	#10	[-]
Posts: 1524 (18-Jun-2008 04:20:12) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	You are presuming the response happens immediately. Why would not delay the Orange Plan be delayed long enough to bring in the "Reserves"? Delay long enough to get Batdivs 3 and 5, the new NCs. CVs-4, 5, 7. and 8, Crudiv 7 and all the light forces in the Atlantic., into the Pacific. Yes some of the BBs are second team, but they ARE BBs. Historically, some of this interocean transfer took place fairly quickly. Now, run your scenario again.
binder001		#11	[-]
Registered Member Posts: 5 (19-Jun-2008 18:27:00) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	jlyons97 wrote: You are presuming the response happens immediately. Why would not delay the Orange Plan be delayed long enough to bring in the "Reserves"? Delay long enough to get Batdivs 3 and 5, the new NCs. CVs-4, 5, 7. and 8, Crudiv 7 and all the light forces in the Atlantic., into the Pacific. Yes some of the BBs are second team, but they ARE BBs. Historically, some of this interocean transfer took place fairly quickly. Now, run your scenario again. You are quite right, that would be an overwhelming amount of firepower. Pehaps in the meantime the CVs could be doing the hit-and-run raids to "blood" the airgroups. In the meantime the other Pacific Fleet ships could be adding more AA (Arizona, among others, was to get 1.1" quads - the tubs were there but the guns hadn't been installed) and training. Presuming that even with warning there would have still been an attack on Pearl Harbor then some damaged ships could also be made ready. I would still feel better about the scenario if we had working torpedoes. The hardest part would be convincing the President and Mr. Churchill to let the US concentrate all that force in the Pacific. The US had strong committments to the "Germany first" strategy..
StevoJH		#12	[-]
Registered Member Posts: 98 (21-Jun-2008 04:00:10) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	binder001 wrote: OK, Pearl is warned. Attack occurs but with much less damage to the battleline. The other Japanese assaults move forward as planned. The US responds with the War Plan Orange response. The Pacific Fleet sorties with 6-8 old BBs with 3 CV in support with appropriate escorts to engange the Japanese move on the Phillipines. The two fleets meet at sea, the Kido Butai still has equivalent of 4+ full airgroups. Without the forced changes to fleet doctrine and the practice involved in the early "strike back" carrier raids, the Japanese catch the US fleet at sea. Given the effectiveness of the Kates and their torpedoes in 1942 the US fleet probably would have taken some serious losses at sea (those are ships that weren't going to be raised for reuse). So, in this scenario we have a "Savo Island" event off Luzon or Mindanao. Then what happens? The Japanese plan says that the Americans will take their bloody nose and realize the Japanese are masters of the central Pacific and negotiate a settlement that leaves the Greater Southeast Asia Co-prosperity Sphere intact. Maybe it's nationalism, but I see the US as learning a bloody lesson, going on the defensive until the "Two-Ocean Navy" ships are ready and then striking back hard. The original question had to do with the first months of the war, so I predict a different rhythm but a similar result. Japan is dominant at least in the NEI, Malaya and the Phillipines, the US is working on rearming and has to fight its way back. The names of the great battles will be different but the end result is the same. Just one person's opinion. If the US Pacific fleet had run into the Japanese fleet and lost its carriers, anything bigger then a destroyer would be lucky to make it back to pearl, considering they would be under constant air attack. If that had happened, then the japanese could launch attacks on the US west coast destroying any ships under construction and limiting the US to east cost shipyards which are pretty much invulnverable to japanese assault.
jlyons97	I would still feel better about the scenario if we had	#13	[-]
Posts: 1543 (21-Jun-2008 15:13:51) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	working torpedoes." So would we all, I suppose. But the status of the torpedoes was unknown when these sort of decisions might have been made.
taschoene		#14	[-]
Posts: 4265 (21-Jun-2008 15:51:29) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	StevoJH wrote: If the US Pacific fleet had run into the Japanese fleet and lost its carriers, anything bigger then a destroyer would be lucky to make it back to pearl, considering they would be under constant air attack. If that had happened, then the japanese could launch attacks on the US west coast destroying any ships under construction and limiting the US to east cost shipyards which are pretty much invulnverable to japanese assault. I don't think the Japanese would really have been able to raid the West Coast quite that easily -- the Pearl Harbor operation stretched their tanker support capability to the limit; coming the rest of the way across the Pacific would probably snap that rubber band. Even if they could, developing a robust air defense capability for the major West Coast manufacturing centers would be well within US capabilities. The British had managed to develop useful (not invulnerable but useful) defenses against the Luftwaffe, which was able to press its attacks far more than the Kido Butai could.
Dolphinstriker		#15	[-]
Posts: 1865 (23-Jun-2008 18:22:16) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	War Plan Orange was dead by the time of the Japanese raid on Pearl Harbor. Rainbow Five was the governing war plan, and it called for the USN to stand on the defensive in the Pacific until such time as the "Two Ocean Navy" came into actual existence. That means that the USN would be committed to the defense of the "Strategic Triangle" (Alaska-Hawaii-Panama Canal), maintaining the sea lanes to Australia, and hit and run carrier raids to keep the IJN off balance and gain experience for the carrier air groups. Even if the Japanese had not destroyed the US battleships at Pearl Harbor, there's not going to be any massive fleet battle between the IJN and USN battlelines early in the war. Neither will the IJN attack the US west coast; it was pretty much beyond Japanese capability to do so, except for hit and run raids which would have seriously interfered with their main goal of establishing themselves in the southwest Pacific. Moreover, the Japanese realized that a carrier raid on the West Coast of the US could accomplish little lasting damage in the face of strong US air opposition and would very likely cost them dearly in aircraft and ships. A different outcome at Pearl Harbor isn't going to materially change the course of the war in the Pacific for these reasons.
No1catman		#16	[-]
Registered Member Posts: 51 (10-Jul-2008 21:23:27) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	But look at it from another angle - after the disaster of Pearl Harbor Kimmel got the 'boot'. In this situation How would US strategy be different with Kimmel still around, still in charge!??
emc		#17	[-]
Posts: 3934 (11-Jul-2008 03:39:32) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	No1catman wrote: But look at it from another angle - after the disaster of Pearl Harbor Kimmel got the 'boot'. In this situation How would US strategy be different with Kimmel still around, still in charge!?? It's tough to say; it's also equally difficult to say what would have happened had Nimitz or Halsey been in charge of the USN forces at Pearl Harbor. How much of the disaster at Pearl Harbor were the responsibility of Kimmel and how much of the disaster was due to systemic problems within the USN is probably the subject of a dissertation or two.
jlyons97	"How much of the disaster at Pearl Harbor were the .....	#18	[-]
Posts: 1585 (13-Jul-2008 20:03:12) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	...responsibility of Kimmel and how much of the disaster was due to systemic problems within the USN is probably the subject of a dissertation or two." Ok, let's hear an executive summary of yours. If there were systemic problems (may well have been: what are a couple?), does the army get a pass? Did Kimmel and Short have reporting responsibilities with respect to the famous 'war order?" New readiness conditions, i.e. I have not read the Roberts Report - does it say? If they did, were their superiors satisfied with the new conditions? If they demonstrably were satisfied - presto: a systemic problem, it would appear. If they did not have reporting responsibilities - another systemic problem perhaps Did anyone above Short know he did not take his air defense system (less anti-sabotage) seriously? Did anyone know above Kimmel that he decided (1) the air threat was serious enough to put the harbor in Condition III (AA) but not (2) serious enough to idly wonder where that threat might come from and watch for it? Ultimately the four stars on the scene hold the bag for this one, IMHO. Their superiors possibly should have been more pro-active, but those two were ill-served by their staffs and their personal analytical abilities.
Joshua Kintner		#19	[-]
Registered Member Posts: 447 (14-Jul-2008 03:01:31) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	Not much would have changed most likely if the Army and Navy had been alerted by visual sighting of the incoming IJN attack force. Remember, these are not late-war rookie IJN pilots in which throwing just a few fighters into the mix would completley foil their attack plans. I could see one or two battleships still in fighting trim with light bomb damage after the attack is over, with some heavier IJN aircraft losses, but I don't expect to see much else other than that.
jlyons97	Get Real...	#20	[-]
Posts: 1586 (14-Jul-2008 05:01:26) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	Joshua Kintner wrote: Not much would have changed most likely if the Army and Navy had been alerted by visual sighting of the incoming IJN attack force. Remember, these are not late-war rookie IJN pilots in which throwing just a few fighters into the mix would completley foil their attack plans. I could see one or two battleships still in fighting trim with light bomb damage after the attack is over, with some heavier IJN aircraft losses, but I don't expect to see much else other than that. Put 40-50 P-40s 50 miles out on the the threat axis and the whole scenario changes.

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