Impact of Sommerville and BEF at Singapore November 1941?

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Admiral Beez	Impact of Sommerville and BEF at Singapore November 1941?	Lead	[-]
Posts: 4468 (10-Apr-2008 18:52:47) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	Albeit with some miracles on ship availability, let's have April 1942's Sommerville and the British Eastern Fleet (3 carriers, 5 battleships, 7 cruisers and 15 destroyers) arrive at Singapore at the end of December to back up Force Z (2 battleships, 4 destroyers). Sommerville takes over total force command from Admiral Phillips. What does Japan do? Presumably, they'd turn their carrier force, along with land-based aircraft against the British instead of the US, and then go after the DEI and their oil and resources, all in the hope that the US will sit idle. But, then what does the US do? Nothing? Without Pearl Harbour, can FDR get Congress to declare war on Japan? If not, does the US at least fortify, prepare and mobilize their positions in the Pacific? If Japan does not take on the US soon, the US will grow in power to the point that even the Japanese high command will worry. The building of the first three Essex class carriers (Essex, Bunker Hill and Lexington) are already well underway by December 1941, with two more being laid down that same month (Yorktown and Intrepid), with a build time of about 16 months per ship from laying down to commissioning into the fleet. With Sommerville and the BEF at Singapore in early December 1941, what is Japan's next move?
ViribusUnitis		#1	[-]
Posts: 460 (10-Apr-2008 19:02:13) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	Singapore was bombed by land-baseed aircraft if I remember Middlebook/Martins book about the Force Z correctly, so perhaps there is a double attack - the carrier strike hits Pearl while land-based aircraft attack the BEF in Singapore. I do not know however wether the aircraft could carry torpedoes/bombs of size sufficient to destroy/damage the ships (ordnance weight vs fuel requirement for the range ?). Singapore would come as a surprise, so its crews would be less well trained (if at all) in this specific attack.
Dave Bender	What does Japan do?	#2	[-]
Posts: 6399 (10-Apr-2008 20:40:02) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	The opening Japanese moves will be the same as happened historically. However the follow on Kido Butai operations will change. Here is what the Kido Butai did historically. 7 Dec 1941. Airstrike against Pearl Harbor. 20 - 22 Jan 1942. Invasion of Rabaul. 1 Feb 1942. Attempt to catch U.S. CV task force that attacked the Marshall Islands. 19 Feb 1942. Air strike on Darwin, Australia. 25 Feb 1942. Support the invasion of Java. 26 Mar 1942. Raid into Indian Ocean (Operation C). With such a juicy RN target at Singapore the Kido Butai priorities will change. 7 Dec 1941. Airstrike against Pearl Harbor. 23 Dec 1941. Kido Butai returns to Japanese home waters. 5 Jan 1942. Akagi, Kaga, Soryu, Hiryu and most of the IJN BBs will conduct Operation C. The target will be the RN fleet rather then Ceylon. 5 Jan 1942. Shokaku, Zukaku and the IJN BCs will support the invasion of Rabaul. 1 Feb 1942. No attempt to catch the U.S. CV task force that raided the Marshall Islands. It is only a pin prick anyway. 19 Feb 1942. Air raid on Darwin doesn't happen. 25 Feb 1942. Shokaku and Zukaku get the mission to support the invasion of Java. 26 Mar 1942. Darwin gets that long over due air strike. Events after this depend on the results of Operation C.
ViribusUnitis		#3	[-]
Posts: 461 (10-Apr-2008 21:11:09) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	Regarding the OP: Force Z survived ? I'm a bit confused by the 'arrives at the end of december' to reinforce it and assume you meant in early december. The question is can Japan afford to ignore the RN until the carriers are back from Pearl ? Having it (or even just parts of of it) in the vicinity while invading the Phillipines is in my opinion a bad idea. If Pearl happens as historical, you'd have one more carrier group running around. Maybe the USN lends some of their carriers to the RN to enhance its strike capabilities ?
Dave Bender	In the vicinity while invading the Phillipines	#4	[-]
Posts: 6402 (10-Apr-2008 21:31:28) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	The RN would be smart to stear clear of the Philippines. Otherwise they will only provide target practise for the IJN 21st and 23rd Naval Air Flotillas. The U.S. Asiatic Fleet abandoned Manila on 10 December 1941 for that reason. If the RAF wants to send a couple Spitfire wings to Luzon the entire strategic picture changes. The Spitfires would do a lot more good then RN surface ships. The same can be said of Singapore.
NewGolconda		#5	[-]
Posts: 3259 (10-Apr-2008 23:02:06) Commonwealth Moderator Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	There was insufficient maintenance personal, spare parts, facilities and ground control for the exisiting Buffalo fighter squadrons in Malaya and Singapore. Some ground crews went days without food. The airdefence of the malay peninsular needed many things other than more fighters, and they needed them a lot earlier than december.
Joshua Kintner		#6	[-]
Registered Member Posts: 387 (10-Apr-2008 23:22:53) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	Indomitable, Formidable, and Hermes could put up, between them, 9 Sea Hurricanes, 12 Fulmars (A decent fighter) , 16 Martlets (Wildcats) , 45 Albacores (Improved Swordfish?) , and 13 Swordfish. That is roughly the capacity that Zuikaku and Ryujo would be able to deploy. Zuikaku, Shokaku, and Ryujo alone, with a mix of thier historical A6M2, B5N, and D3A complements, would be able to beat this force.
RK		#7	[-]
Posts: 222 (11-Apr-2008 03:45:11) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	Having read ' Buffaloes over Singapore' by Brian Cull, I would agree with NewGolconda. The British woke up to the need to invest in Malaya (mainly in air defense) with too little and too late to affect the outcome.
Panonski Mornar		#8	[-]
Posts: 15 (11-Apr-2008 07:54:54) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	Potr Arthur, second take Suprise night torpedo atack - this time with bombers of 11th Air Fleet, not torpedo boats. And in the mornig, Yamamoto arives with 6 battleships flying Togo's Z flag from Tsushima, The Empire's fate depends on the result of this battle, let every man do his utmost duty...
ViribusUnitis		#9	[-]
Posts: 462 (11-Apr-2008 08:06:46) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	A surprise attack might not be possible - if Churchill agrees to send the fleet east, even with the need to remove them form the Atlantic and Mediterranean scene, he must have accepted that war with Japan is inevitable. There might be a a Radar warning before a strike if war is expected. Also, I'd expect a comparable reinforcement to the army and RAF to accompany the fleet as a convoy. The troops used to invade Madagascar in 1942 might be transferred to the Far East if they are already available, Australia and New Zealand could also have some soldiers to spare (weren't they requesting a a fleet at Singapore ? If they get it, they could provide more air cover or ground troops as part of a deal).
NewGolconda		#10	[-]
Posts: 3262 (11-Apr-2008 08:56:01) Commonwealth Moderator Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	"Australia and New Zealand could also have some soldiers to spare (weren't they requesting a a fleet at Singapore ?" To grossly oversimply. Before 1939, Australia and New Zealand wanted a main fleet east policy so they wouldnt have to have an army. After 1939, Australia and New Zealand wanted a main fleet east policy (eventually the fleet itself, or an air defence scheme) so they could afford to send their armies to the Middle East, where Churchill wanted them. In mid 1941; New Zealand had one expeditionary division, in the middle east. Australia had four expeditionary divisions, three in the middle east, and one steadilly deploying to Singapore and the NEE. Had the British government recomended the recall of Australian or New Zealand ground units to Singapore and Malaya in mid 1941, they would have found fairly swift agreement. Churchills priority in 1941 was offensive action against Germany.

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Impact of Sommerville and BEF at Singapore November 1941?

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