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India vs. China 2014

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Admiral Beez	India vs. China 2014	Lead	[-]
Posts: 4541 ( 3-May-2007 17:59:42) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	By 2012, the first of India's new Vikrant class carriers will be in commissioned (if built on time). www.answers.com/topic/vik...ft-carrier Her 30 aircraft will consist of MiG-29K, HAL Tejas, Dhruv, and Ka-31 'Helix'. Next, let's assume that China is able to get Varyag operational by 2013. Given the continued growth and development of both sides' navies, how would these two compare in a sea battle in 2014?
shiplover	India vs. China	#1	[-]
Posts: 236 ( 3-May-2007 23:55:28) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	I think it depends very much o the aircraft flying of Varyag and the technical state of the two ships and the training of the crews. Nonetheless your question came to my mind too because my guess is that this is the most probable carrier battle I can imagine in the next decades. The political situation for this scenario would be a total desaster and I hope we will never see this scenario.
benbox	Good grief	#2	[-]
Posts: 462 ( 5-May-2007 06:02:20) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	The political / economic shockwaves from this conflict will hit the global economy -- i.e. US and EU -- incredibly hard. Bad times for all. My money would be on the Indian carrier. In 7 years time, the PLAN would have less than 5 years of true carrier task force operational experience. The Indians have been operating carriers longer. Ben
jim3au	Re: India vs. China 2014	#3	[-]
Posts: 1499 (19-May-2007 13:52:24) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	By 2014, it seems most likely that only one of the countries, India will have an operational carrier, but even allowing that they have one each, why would they attack each other's carriers with carrier aircraft? If one had a carrier and wanted to hurt the other country, it would seem sensible to attack islands and trade lanes and to try to avoid the loss of your ship. Massed attacks from land-based aircraft would be hazards to be avoided. The other part of the equation that does not make much sense to me is that a valuable ship like a carrier should have escorts. The vulnerability of a carrier is in part, a reflection of the strengths and weaknesses of her escorts. How good are the antimissile systems of the ships of the Indian and Chinese navies? How good are the navies of India and China at antisubmarine work? Both the Indian and Chinese navies have anti-shipping missiles that will be able to kill a destroyer and cause a lot of bother to an aircraft carrier. Both the navies have some relatively quiet conventional submarines that can fire torpedos that will hurt a carrier. Who is going to detect whom first becomes the key question that was true in WWII and remains true today. I think that India has and will have better maritime patrol aircraft than the Chinese. India has friends and allies that are likely to disclose the location of this mythical Chinese carrier if they happen across that information. If India knows where the Chinese carrier is, then India can sink the carrier and keep her own carrier out of harms way. The Indian carrier is a most difficult task for the Indian shipbuilding industry. There is plenty of opportunity to fall behind production schedules. It is also likely that India had built some slack into the timetable of the new carrier so that she has a chance of being commissioned on time. Are the Indian yards good enough to build a brand new class of ship and to get the first one operational on time? It is a big ask. Does China want a carrier? I do not think that she does. It will always be an easy target for her potential opposition eg the USA, Japan, South Korea. Worse, it will always suffer by comparison with the giant US carriers. She would like more amphibious capability and that is where I would expect Chinas efforts to go.
pppet		#4	[-]
Registered Member Posts: 2 ( 6-Feb-2008 15:44:03) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	One cannot look at this in isolation. I am sure that if ever PRC and India were to go to war,Pakistan would jump at the chance to fish in troubled waters.The Pak navy would have to be neutralised and that would require diversion of resources.The Pak navy would perform ideally the role of a "fleet in being" and hence assist the Chinese. Remember how the Tirpitz, alone, kept three British battleships (the KG V,DoY & Anson),two aircraft carriers (Indomitable and Formidable) plus attendant cruisers and destroyers permanently tied up in the North Sea from 1942 to 1944, just when the Japanese were rampant in SE Asia. The Pak navy will use its surface warships as a bait and rely on its good submarine force to whittle down the Indians.Since the Indian side is deficient in good ASW ships with not enough Krivak III or the Shivaliks afloat and the existing Godavari's and Leander's now just useful as coastal escorts this strategy would be ideal. Unless the Indians manage to get more Shivaliks/Krivaks afloat by 2014 how would they provide sufficient escorts to their A/C against Chinese submarines and yet blockade the Pakistani fleet ? The sole Indian A/C with a weak escort would be a nice target for the more numerous Chinese submarines.And it would be suicidal if such a force would try to cross the Straits of Malacca and venture into the Java or the Celebes Sea. The Indians must keep their obsession for A/Cs in perspective and endeavour to have atleast new 18-20 FFG in the water within the next 7 years. Only then can they face a war on two fronts with some confidence. PPP
CVA02		#5	[-]
Posts: 351 (13-Feb-2008 22:28:51) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	This is the sort of silly topic that seems designed only to generate ethnic antagonism. There is absolutely no potential for a conflict between China and India in the next decade. The only shared border is desolate, mountainous and worthless for all practical purposes. The 1962 war was an isolated event, much like the 1979 war with Vietnam. A total lack of a Chinese threat is evinced by the ATV, which amounts to nothing more than a tactical range deterrent SSBN, not a true strategic deterrent. The ATV is obviously not meant as a deterrent against China, or any other power, such as Britain, France, or Russia, that possesses SSBNs with strategic range missiles.
pppet		#6	[-]
Registered Member Posts: 9 (16-Feb-2008 12:49:07) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	If one were to read the latest Chinese statements it would be obvious that they have gone beyond the frozen heights of the Aksai Chin and Tawang.Now they are floating a massive ballon d'essai by making statements on Arunachal Pradesh,a fully inhabited Indian state.(on the easternmost part of India and sharing a border with China & Burma) These are not casual statements made by some junior bureaucrat but have the full weight of the Politburo behind them.This has reallly shaken up the Indian establishment and no less than the Indian PM is rushing to the state to confirm that it belongs to India where none has gone before since atleast 1962. And beyond Arunachal Pradesh lie the oil fields of Assam ! When one remembers how the 1962 war started with such statements in 1959 I am not to sanguine about there being no reason for a Sino-India war. PPP
caioduilio	oil peak before 2014?	#7	[-]
Posts: 51 (16-Feb-2008 13:07:02) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts Message Me Connection Blocking Invite Ignore User's Posts	if one believes to the oil peak theory than it is possible that by 2014 there will be, unfortunately for everybody, many reasons for wars that today we cannot even imagine...

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