Early prediction on US election in The Politics Of War Forum

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Early prediction on US election

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ickysdad

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Posts: 5414

Sep 19 12 12:33 AM

Nightwatch,

I usually don't argue current politics but don't mind discussing predicting a current race. That being said the National Polls showed on average it being tied on 9/3 but if one goes to Real Clear Politics , a Republican outfit at that, the graph pertaining to the Obama/Romney race shows Obama steadily rising in polls since then. You bring up Colorado BUT it seems Obama has been rising in Florida,Virginia and Ohio though of course it seems Romney is doing much better in Iowa & Wisconsin then a GOP candidate usually does however I'm sure Obama would trade Iowa,Wisconsin & Colorado for Florida,Ohio and Virginia. In the last month Romney has basically pulled out of both Michigan & Pennsylvania. Further look at the ABC poll from last month to this month,it went from Romney +3 in LV,+1 IN RV to Obama + 6 in RV /+1 in LV in that time frame. However make no mistake I concede Romney could very well win and that it will be close.

It certainly is fair to point out if a poll has too much of a Democrat lean but Rasmussen does the same thing,at least nationally,he consistently shows a few point Republican lean nationally(i.e. more registered GOP then Democrat voters) when that hasn't happened in decades ,2004 was the high water mark whereupon the GOP achieved parity with the Democrats at like 34% each. However may it be at times that one side or the other is far more motivated? I also discount some polls even when I'd like for them to be true!!! LOL!!!!

Now per Gallup this year they have steadily allocated only like 20-22% non-whites per their electorate whereas in 2008 ,it was like 26% on election day. In 1992 it was only 13% of the electorate and has increased substantially every year since. It's very true though that party affiliation does shift at times quite a bit from election to election. The 2010 election results is normally attributed to a out-pouring of Tea Partiers but it was probably more a case of the Independents taking a very,very hard right that election year.

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Nightwatch2

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Posts: 13095

Sep 19 12 1:00 AM

Air Boss

you've gone quite a bit more in depth on the state to state analysis than I have. This far out it is tough to forecast, but an accurate electoral prediction can only be made by doing that.

I disagree that RCP is a Republican outfit - they post a lot of stuff across the spectrum and include polling data from a lot of liberal or Democrat leaning outfits. They cover the full spectrum.

The rise since 9/3 is the DNC bounce, and since receeding. The broad trend is what I'm looking at. Obama is losing some of that bounce. How far that goes - who knows.

I noted that North Carolina has shifted strongly to Romney and the others are in play, most by very small margins which, if one controls for the oversampling of Democrats, is even smaller.

still early. Another week or two should show some real trends and the debates should move things one way or the other.

Carter was leading Reagan by 6 points the week before Reagan swept 44 states. In the current environment of cell phones - the polling companys' data are not reliable at all.

"Do not blame Caesar, blame the people of Rome who have so enthusiastically acclaimed and adored him and rejoiced in their loss of freedom and danced in his path and given him triumphal processions. Blame the people who hail him when he speaks in the Forum of the new wonderful good society which shall now be Rome's, interpreted to mean more money, more ease, more security, and more living fatly at the expense of the industrious." --

ickysdad

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Posts: 5414

Sep 19 12 1:59 AM

A couple of points..
1. On RCP yes they do post alot of liberal,and conservative, polls. However I'm just saying they are runned by Republican owners. There are members of both parties who are objective though to hear the media you wouldn't believe it.

2. As Per Carter versus Reagan in 1980 well Romney is no Reagan per being a politician for one to say otherwise is a tremendous insult to Reagan. However that's just MHO ,I just think Reagan was a far,far better politician in 1980 then Romney is now while I think Obama is far superior a politician now then Carter was in 1980. Let me make clear that IMHO Great/Better Politician doesn't necessarily equal Great/Better President.

My overall tone is what I stated earlier in this thread ,which I link to below ,in that back in 2004 Kerry supporters were attacking every poll that showed Bush ahead. One might be able to make a case for a certain poll here or one poll there but when all are,more or less,showing the same thing they're hard to dismiss.

It will be fun to watch though.

http://warships1discussio...rediction-on-US-election

ickysdad

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Posts: 5414

Sep 19 12 5:20 AM

On momentum...Here are some other national poll results...
Reuter's IPSOS has went from +3 Obama to +5 Obama.
NBC/Wall Street Journal went from Obama +4 amongst Registered voters on 8/20 to Obama +5 amongst Likely voters as of today
Monmouth/SUSA/Braun poll went from Obama +1 on 8/14 to Obama +3.
CBS/NYT went from Romney +1 last month to Obama +3 this month.
Fox News went from Romney + 1 LV last month to Obama = 3 this month.
CNN went from Obama +7 registered voters on 8/8 to tied with likely voters on 9/3 ,on 9/9 it was Obama +6 likely voters.
I've already mentioned the ABC poll in prior posts.

Now of course it's still over 6 weeks till 11/6 and far from over but I think it's a stretch to say the last month has been kind to Romney especially when he really needed his convention and his VP selection to boost him ahead ,at least according to conventional wisdom & past history.

Nightwatch2

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Posts: 13095

Sep 19 12 4:19 PM

Air Boss

granted. Most of those polls though suffer from two key deficiencies -

1. they don't use consistent methodology. They change their parameters

2. most of those polling agencies are pushing Obama (how Fox got in there remains a pretty good question) and are not only oversampling dems, but changing their numbers in order to fabricate their results.

The only two that I trust, for the simple reason that they use consistent sampling methods and adhere to samples that are at least close, are Rasmusen and Gallup. Those are the only two that I pay attention to. The rest are worthless, including Fox.

The other caveat is the Registered Voter vs Likely Voter difference.

as you say, it is still over 6 weeks away and a lot happens day to day.

"Do not blame Caesar, blame the people of Rome who have so enthusiastically acclaimed and adored him and rejoiced in their loss of freedom and danced in his path and given him triumphal processions. Blame the people who hail him when he speaks in the Forum of the new wonderful good society which shall now be Rome's, interpreted to mean more money, more ease, more security, and more living fatly at the expense of the industrious." --

Nightwatch2

More shifting numbers

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Posts: 13095

Sep 19 12 9:01 PM

Air Boss

More shifting numbers according to Rasmussen

http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/romney-takes-lead-new/2012/09/19/id/456780

"Do not blame Caesar, blame the people of Rome who have so enthusiastically acclaimed and adored him and rejoiced in their loss of freedom and danced in his path and given him triumphal processions. Blame the people who hail him when he speaks in the Forum of the new wonderful good society which shall now be Rome's, interpreted to mean more money, more ease, more security, and more living fatly at the expense of the industrious." --

Gunnersmate04

Registered vs. Likely

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Posts: 3435

Sep 20 12 4:06 PM

Is where the truth lay.

How many disgruntled Obama voters will stay home this time around or Independents that got caught up in the rapture of O last time will stay home this time?

By the same token-who is more motivated to turn out this time around-Republicans or Dems? I'd say it has to be Republicans and the Indys no way swing majority O this time around. I think the "47%'ers" will stay home in masse as their lifestyle by nature is to be catered too ( or at least a good portion of them).

p.s. I do not count SS recipients or VA benefit recipients in the "Government suckling" crowd. They EARNED their benefits.

Nightwatch2

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Posts: 13095

Sep 20 12 4:52 PM

Air Boss

Gunnersmate04 wrote:
Is where the truth lay.

How many disgruntled Obama voters will stay home this time around or Independents that got caught up in the rapture of O last time will stay home this time?

By the same token-who is more motivated to turn out this time around-Republicans or Dems? I'd say it has to be Republicans and the Indys no way swing majority O this time around. I think the "47%'ers" will stay home in masse as their lifestyle by nature is to be catered too ( or at least a good portion of them).

p.s. I do not count SS recipients or VA benefit recipients in the "Government suckling" crowd. They EARNED their benefits.

yep - I've always made that distinction too, and it is clear listening to Romney's illegally taped comments that he was referring to the entitlement crowd that sucks up un-earned redistribution welfare benefits. Even un-employment is earned/paid-for. Everybody knows and understands what he was referring to even if the leftist-whackos lie about what he actually said.

Not sure about the so-called "enthusiasm gap" though. The polling on that of late seems to indicate that Clinton's speech sort of fired them up. Interesting that the most effective (only effective) speaker at the DNC was the impeached, ex-president/disbarred/sexual predator in a convention that focused on the fabricated GOP "War on Women"............

"Do not blame Caesar, blame the people of Rome who have so enthusiastically acclaimed and adored him and rejoiced in their loss of freedom and danced in his path and given him triumphal processions. Blame the people who hail him when he speaks in the Forum of the new wonderful good society which shall now be Rome's, interpreted to mean more money, more ease, more security, and more living fatly at the expense of the industrious." --

Gunnersmate04

Polls

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Posts: 3435

Sep 20 12 5:03 PM

All the polls have been skewed heavy Democrat by an average of 9% Dem to Repub.

I would assume that if equal party was polled 50/50 split it would be more telling.

ickysdad

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Posts: 5414

Sep 20 12 5:32 PM

When you start cherry picking polls guys you are in for a very long nite on November 7 and even Rasmussen has shown movement from 3 Romney earlier this week to today Obama +2 and that pollster has a R4 lean for it's nationwide polls, an R lean nationwide hasn't happened in decades ,2004 was the GOP highwater mark recently when they achieved parity in nationwide turnout. I seen it with the Democrats in 2002, 2004 & 2010 ,the GOP supporters in 2006,2008 and I dare to say they might see it again this year. Ignore the data at your own peril. PEW poll yesterday showed Obama up 8, FOX News had 3 polls showing Obama with 5-7 point leads in Florida,Ohio and Virginia then there are those polls by Marist. The Washington Post(not the most friendly Obama paper/pollster either) had Obama up 8 in Virginia now some GOP posters on another forum told me it undersampled R's by 9 however the same poll also undersampled the D's by 7 but even at that it isn't good news for Romney. Yes there are polls that oversample Democrats but it's also happening in regards to GOP voters being over-sampled in state polls.

Now per the LV versus RV model ,in 2008 there were 225,000,000 eligible to vote, about 140,000,000+ were registered(63% of those eligible),130,000,000+ actually voted(58% of those eligible) .In 2004 89% of RV's showed up to vote,In 2008 90%+ showed up. All data from the Census Bureau. All of these different pollsters have different screenings for their LV models however from the Census Bureau data it seems the RV model gives us a very good model to use since from the data shown if one is registered there's a very good chance they show up.

Romney's video taped speech? Well no matter how you cut it it's not good for getting him elected no matter how you sugar coat it but I'm not saying it is any sort of way malicious intent by Romney. IMHO??? The man just isn't all that articulate. Obama is just a better politician wether or not you like the job he's doing.

If it's any consolation polls are just a snapshot of time ,yes it can change between now and November but just saying as things look now, Romney is sliding downward but who knows Obama might get caught on film next week with Monica Lewinski. One just never doess know.

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ickysdad

and

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Posts: 5414

Sep 20 12 5:41 PM

Gunnersmate04 wrote:
All the polls have been skewed heavy Democrat by an average of 9% Dem to Repub.

I would assume that if equal party was polled 50/50 split it would be more telling.

Just which polls are they? PPP gets bad press for leaning D however if memory serves me right they got it mostly right in 2008,2010, and the Wisconsin recall election. In their latest Wisconsin polls ,in August they had it +2 R,this month +4R but even at that Obama went from -1 to +1 LV despite the increase in R lean furthermore this state has had a very heavy Democrat lean since 1988,it was like D8 in 2008 . Just because a pollster gives one party or the other a lean doesn't mean it's poll is biased here in Indiana you can't poll even Democrats -Republicans because the state is heavily Republican just like my county is heavily Democrat and my town I live in is lean GOP.
Gallup? They over predicted Obama in 2008 but in 2010 they figured the GOP would get 16% more then the DEM's nationwide when actually it ended up like a 7 point advantage. Rasmussen predicted the R's would win nationwide by about 12 points in 2010 and again it ended up at a 7 point advantage.
All pollsters produce outliers at times but the best way to sort through it is taking a look at several polls even the polls & pollsters you don't like.

IcelofAngeln

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Posts: 6043

Sep 20 12 6:44 PM

Romney's chances don't feel good to me. I'm not seeing any of the sliding 'preference cascade' I had optimistically expected, as happened to Carter in Sept-Oct 1980. My gut is telling me that this country is too diseased to be saved.

"All right... all right... but apart from better sanitation and medicine and education and irrigation and public health and roads and a freshwater system and baths and public order... what have the Romans done for us? "

Gunnersmate04

Ice

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Posts: 3435

Sep 20 12 10:16 PM

Hard to argue-with so much thats gone wrong with Obama-but the MASTERFUL WAY the media has spun everything to not be his fault-its almost assured he will win -all he has to do is win Ohio or Florida and its over. I think he will win Ohio but lose Florida btw.

And if you think things are bad now-wait until he gets re-elected and is un-fettered by re-election.

The RNC should have been able to run a broken vaccum against this pathetic POTUS and his scarecrow VP and won easily-but the worst that ever could have happened for any chance of that was the 2010 elections and now he has an excuse and the DNC will banter it at every presser.

Even the foreign policy debacle this week past was spun back as some how Romney did soemthing wrong, not Obama.

Yes, Ice, we are F@*$%D!

JBren1

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Posts: 1191

Sep 21 12 1:30 AM

'The polls' as in say Real Clear Politics average aren't skewed to the Democrats by anything like 9%, that's some really wishful thinking if you actually believe it, or maybe trying to snow other people? Some polls in the RCP average are 'registered voter' and/or 'D' org as flagged by RCP, but most are likely voter, and who is really a 'likely voter' is a genuinely difficult thing to determine in low voter turnout country like the US. Independent pollsters (Gallup, Rasmussen, the people used in NBC/WSJ or Fox/Opinion Dynamics etc) are not going to make their careers overestimating one party.

I think the 'country is too diseased to save', whether or not actually true, is going to save you sour stomach come election day as opposed to keeping up with 'the polls are all skewed and Romney is really even or ahead'. I wish it were so, but it's not, and lately it's moved against Romney. The betting odds on Obama were around 60% for a long time, now close to 70%. 70 isn't 100, and it's only people betting their own money, but I don't see the point in kidding oneself or trying to kid others that this race is going well for Romney at the moment.

Joe

Gunnersmate04

Your right JBren

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Posts: 3435

Sep 21 12 3:47 PM

All the polls I have seen have it even or within the margin of error. Definitely a disaster for Romney and why bother with the debates, he should concede now.

Thank you for painting such a clear picture of everything, right on target as always.

JBren1

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Posts: 1191

Sep 21 12 4:43 PM

Gunnersmate04 wrote:
All the polls I have seen have it even or within the margin of error. Definitely a disaster for Romney and why bother with the debates, he should concede now.

Thank you for painting such a clear picture of everything, right on target as always.

You made a specific claim, polls skewed *9%* in favor of the Democrats. But maybe you can't even remember what you wrote. Or maybe you'd like to defend that ridiculous comment with details...

I guess people betting at 70-30 odds for Obama are idiots. It's really a pure 50-50 shot according to you (or Romney's really ahead I guess, since the polls are skewed 9% in favor of the Democrats, right?). Sounds like you should take the odds on Romney and not waste your time writing weak sarcasm.

Point is, the frustration that Romney is probably going to lose is made worse, personally to me, by people like you talking out your ass about how it's all OK and the polls are skewed, and etc. Just a bunch of crap. The race is going poorly for Romney, why deny it? Maybe he can turn it around. I hope so.

Joe

Gunnersmate04

Poorly?

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Posts: 3435

Sep 21 12 6:01 PM

You think a statistical "dead heat" before the debates and with every major MSM source playing cover for Obama is Romney doing poorly?

The debates, although Romney should be able to out duel the "Teleprompter in Chief" is being hosted by FAR LEFT "moderators". I assume -as with when Hillary ran against him-that they will hit Romney with the tough qustions first and then let O rebutt, and give O the softballs.

With the media advantages Obama has he should be up by double digits. if anything, it coudl be argued that Obama is doing poorly and the recent foreign "policy" boondoggle is showing in the closeness.

But, I guess as they say " we shall see".

ickysdad

well guys...

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Posts: 5414

Sep 21 12 6:31 PM

Guys you know the right and/or far right thinks one thing ,the left/far left thinks another. A Republican could look at something and get this or that from it a Democrat could get just the opposite from same info and just who is to who is wrong? The left said a heck of alot of BS about Bush years ago now the right is doing the same about Obama ,both left & right are wrong in that regard both are good men IMHO who found out in office you can't please one without pissing off the other. If one talks to the left/liberals they think the media is biased against them so just who's right? However I'm not here to argue that. So...

There have been several polls out showing Obama picking up steam. In Virginia,Ohio, Florida and Colorado one will see Obama tied/behind couple-several points in those states a month ago now some of these same polls(Purple Strategies/We Ask America/Gravis Marketing all GOP type pollsters) are showing him ahead. Now even Rasmussen has shown Romney going from +3(with leaners) earlier this week to -3(with leaners) today. There is something there folks like it or not.

You know instead of blaming the media maybe one ought to blame the GOP's candidate? Hell it seems even alot of the GOP can't stand Mitt Romney again IMHO he's an establishment candidate versus one who has the heart of the party behind him. IMHO if the GOP had nominated a Santorum or Ryan they probably would be much better off. I'm sorry but right now the best campaigner Obama has is Mitt Romney and the latter's flip-flopping around doesn't help.You remember how Bush painted Kerry in that way?. I said it earlier regardless of what type of job you think Obama is doing he's just a better campaigner/politician then Romney.

Last Edited By: ickysdad Sep 22 12 5:54 AM. Edited 1 times.

IcelofAngeln

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Posts: 6043

Sep 21 12 6:54 PM

Polls do tend to become self-fulfilling prophesies; I see nothing inconsistent with regarding them as being deliberately skewed AND reflecting, having in part created, Romney's poor chances- all just aspects of the Media Wing of the Democratic Party.

It would taske a far more capable and impressive candidaten than Mi8tt Romney ton defeat the media, even running against a candidate so objectively hideous as Barck Obama.

"All right... all right... but apart from better sanitation and medicine and education and irrigation and public health and roads and a freshwater system and baths and public order... what have the Romans done for us? "

No1catman

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Posts: 267

Sep 23 12 11:23 AM

Perhaps the reason the 'polls' have been worse for Romney - is the sucession of gaffes he seems to come out with. The committed will continue to support him, but that won't be enough. The TV debate will be crucial to both - Romney HAS to do very well - with no '+%#@-ups'! Somehow, I don't see it happening .....

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Early prediction on US election