Joshua, jlyons97,
Since we have, "I only asked that the topic refrain from discussion of any invasion ..." from Viper, it would appear that it is safe for us to ignore BOBC 59 and proceed with our discussions.
In response to your, "Also Rob, when you mention eliminating most of the potential, I would like to hear how you would alter it to where it would have potential for doing more than historical.", I would suggest that any measure which gives the Kido Butai more time, rather than less, in Hawaiian waters has the potential to further alter the OTL.
Keeping in mind, of course, that in December of 1941 no one, neither Japanese nor American knew that there would be two functioning A-bombs in August of 1945.
The first and easiest is to assume that the 8th Japanese auxilliary tanker had it's historical mechanical problems repaired in time and does indeed sail with the KB towards Hawaii. Thus extending the number of days that the KB could maintain high speed operations in Hawaiian waters, if not the numbers of bombs, torpedoes and replacement aircraft available to Nagumo.
My second choise would be for Japan to have secretly converted a few more such tanker/oliers and sent them along as well. If they secretly converted 8 tankers to underway re-fueling capability, how difficult would it have been for them to so convert 10 or 12 instead ?
Third and harder/riskier would be to have the Japanese establish a temporary replenishment base at some Hawaiian chain atoll like French Frigate Shoals (see for more), beginning after the initial air attacks on PH so as not to spoil that surprise. Potential sites could have been secretly scouted by IJN submarine carried intel groups over the months leading up to the Pacifc War had Japan wished to do so. Such a replenishment group would have several days to get set-up and ready as the KB already carried ordnance/supplies for several days of chasing your American BBs around Hawaiian waters (or more likely, further to the east) and would take some additional time to cover the 700 miles back west to FFS (or whichever atoll was selected).
A net layer, some oilers, a minelayer or two, an ordnance stores transport, a seaplane tender (to transport/hoist crated replacement KB warplanes and provide some limited air recon.and floatplane fighter protection), possibly a repair tender and some ASW escorts would give a wind/wave protected one-time home to the KB strike force. Allowing it to return reloaded (most unexpectedly by the Americans) very quickly after the initial attacks.
IIRC the first American reinforcements arrived by convoy from San Francisco about two weeks after Dec.7'41 which is just about the time that the reloaded KB that I suggest could have been back in Hawaiian waters. With the three American carriers being on the bottom of PHas per your first post there could have been no ferrying of short ranged fighter aircraft betwen the US west coast and Oahu during those two weeks so USAAF strengths would be only those US fighter aircraft that could have been repaired from those hit on Dec.7'41. A very limited number judging by the photos of burned on the ground US fighters that I have seen in the literature.
Yes, some additional B-17s and PBYs (if any of those very in-demand aircraft were actually available on the US West Coast ??) could have flown in directly but as you have indicated that your Japanese would have bombed the PH fuel tankfarms during the first air raid, there would be little avgas available for long range scouting when defensive US fighters would have the first fuel priority. Japan's submarine screen would hopefully prove to more aggressive in their scouting and attacking, than they were historically once they were aware that the KB would be returning to Hawaiian waters to better finish their work there.
If the Japanese can afford to continue to keep Hawaii isolated (I think blockaded to be too strong a description of what the Japanese could have achieved so far from any of their permanent replenishment bases), I would/have predicted a large battle just to the east of Hawaii in late January 1942 as the US Atlantic Fleet carriers, battleships and oilers arrive in the Pacific to reinforce any survivors of the US Pacific Fleet for a counter-attack.
A US win would result in a (slightly delayed) replay of the OTL but a decisive Japanese win there might, just might, have led to ceasefire talks. Maybe.
Thus giving a very different "face" to your scenario's Pacific War.
Since we have, "I only asked that the topic refrain from discussion of any invasion ..." from Viper, it would appear that it is safe for us to ignore BOBC 59 and proceed with our discussions.
In response to your, "Also Rob, when you mention eliminating most of the potential, I would like to hear how you would alter it to where it would have potential for doing more than historical.", I would suggest that any measure which gives the Kido Butai more time, rather than less, in Hawaiian waters has the potential to further alter the OTL.
Keeping in mind, of course, that in December of 1941 no one, neither Japanese nor American knew that there would be two functioning A-bombs in August of 1945.
The first and easiest is to assume that the 8th Japanese auxilliary tanker had it's historical mechanical problems repaired in time and does indeed sail with the KB towards Hawaii. Thus extending the number of days that the KB could maintain high speed operations in Hawaiian waters, if not the numbers of bombs, torpedoes and replacement aircraft available to Nagumo.
My second choise would be for Japan to have secretly converted a few more such tanker/oliers and sent them along as well. If they secretly converted 8 tankers to underway re-fueling capability, how difficult would it have been for them to so convert 10 or 12 instead ?
Third and harder/riskier would be to have the Japanese establish a temporary replenishment base at some Hawaiian chain atoll like French Frigate Shoals (see for more), beginning after the initial air attacks on PH so as not to spoil that surprise. Potential sites could have been secretly scouted by IJN submarine carried intel groups over the months leading up to the Pacifc War had Japan wished to do so. Such a replenishment group would have several days to get set-up and ready as the KB already carried ordnance/supplies for several days of chasing your American BBs around Hawaiian waters (or more likely, further to the east) and would take some additional time to cover the 700 miles back west to FFS (or whichever atoll was selected).
A net layer, some oilers, a minelayer or two, an ordnance stores transport, a seaplane tender (to transport/hoist crated replacement KB warplanes and provide some limited air recon.and floatplane fighter protection), possibly a repair tender and some ASW escorts would give a wind/wave protected one-time home to the KB strike force. Allowing it to return reloaded (most unexpectedly by the Americans) very quickly after the initial attacks.
IIRC the first American reinforcements arrived by convoy from San Francisco about two weeks after Dec.7'41 which is just about the time that the reloaded KB that I suggest could have been back in Hawaiian waters. With the three American carriers being on the bottom of PHas per your first post there could have been no ferrying of short ranged fighter aircraft betwen the US west coast and Oahu during those two weeks so USAAF strengths would be only those US fighter aircraft that could have been repaired from those hit on Dec.7'41. A very limited number judging by the photos of burned on the ground US fighters that I have seen in the literature.
Yes, some additional B-17s and PBYs (if any of those very in-demand aircraft were actually available on the US West Coast ??) could have flown in directly but as you have indicated that your Japanese would have bombed the PH fuel tankfarms during the first air raid, there would be little avgas available for long range scouting when defensive US fighters would have the first fuel priority. Japan's submarine screen would hopefully prove to more aggressive in their scouting and attacking, than they were historically once they were aware that the KB would be returning to Hawaiian waters to better finish their work there.
If the Japanese can afford to continue to keep Hawaii isolated (I think blockaded to be too strong a description of what the Japanese could have achieved so far from any of their permanent replenishment bases), I would/have predicted a large battle just to the east of Hawaii in late January 1942 as the US Atlantic Fleet carriers, battleships and oilers arrive in the Pacific to reinforce any survivors of the US Pacific Fleet for a counter-attack.
A US win would result in a (slightly delayed) replay of the OTL but a decisive Japanese win there might, just might, have led to ceasefire talks. Maybe.
Thus giving a very different "face" to your scenario's Pacific War.
