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IMHO Portugal will stay neutral for now. They still have colonies all over the world and they've been warned before that they'll lose them instantly the moment they join the Axis.
Also Portugal, despite it's long alliance with the British, won't join the Allies unless the UK can guarantee anything. Not much likely.
There's a small chance the Americans will get angry if Portugal is attacked too; just like they occupied Iceland, they'll occupy the Azores.

Portugal will sit this out, unless Franco decides to make a larger Spain. In this timeline Franco's already busy enough with the Germans. Why would they BTW attack a fellow fascist?
I'm pretty sure if Germany starts massing troops, Franco will eventually allow entrance if only to keep himself living a bit longer.

Perhaps this would be more logical if the Spanish Civil War had been shorter and been won by the Republicans? By '40 they would have tried to repair a bit of the damage done (impossible, Spain was in a bad shape long before the SCW).


Joshua Kintner;

In a word, yes. It could even be the ultimate key to an eventual invasion of Britian, as if they can close down and conquer the Mediterranean, and secure a supply of oil from North Africa, then both the combined German, Italian, and repaired Vichy French Navies, along what's left of the Spanish Navy, could then sail through occupied Gilbratar to launch the invasion of Britian, plus, more U-boat bases farther out into the Altantic and farther away from British bomber range than bases in France.

Where are the Germans going to get 10 000s of sailors from? The Spanish navy BTW lost both it's (obsolete) battleships in '37 IIRC, so anything left of the Spanish Navy after Germany has rolled over Spain won't be bigger than a rowing boat. IRL there were still partisans in Spain in the '50s. Spain would have been a nightmare to keep under control which would make Yugoslavia seem a picnic.

Harder? Try like, impossible. With as small in width the Straits are, Ju-87s will have no problems in taking down enemy vessels, espically with a small pack of wolfer submarines cruising in the straits. The British fleet is either going to have to be concentrated at Alexandria or slip through the Suez to join the PacFleet. That is probably where the remnants will go once the Med falls under Axis control.

You are aware that during (early) WWII all British shipping went around the Cape instead of through the Med anyways? If necessary they can redirect those ships a bit further West.
Spain will lose it's islands (especially the Canaries and maybe even the Balearics) and colonies to the British the moment a German soldier steps across the Spanish border.
All and any Axis traffic in the Atlantic will get destroyed by Allied forces based on the Canaries. Maybe eventually WWII lasts a few months longer, but that's it.

binder001 wrote:

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The initial poster specified that this is late 1940. Britain is still weak from Dunkirk, etc. IF the Spanish beefed up their forces in the Canaries, are the Brits up to an opposed landing? If Donitz posted a force of U-boats in the area there could be heavy casualties for the invader. Franco was quite sypmpathetic to the Axis. If the Germans came in as "technical advisors" such as they did in 1936 would there have been a huge outcry from the Spanish people? If they were "invited guests" could German bombers help cover the Canaries from Spain? As far as Gibraltar being a tough nut to crack - one doesn't need to necessarily take the place to neutralize it as an effective operating base. In fact, Gib could be used as bait to keep the British coming to supply it against submarines, costal forces, air cover, etc. The RN would be stretched to maintain the blockade in the North Sea, escort convoys, supply the Middle East, and conduct operations against Spain and the Canaries. It would require the cooperation of Spain and the huge effort needed to get the Italian Navy to show agressive spirit, but the RN would be faced with two surface threats. Would the British try to close the Med from bases in Britain or would they fight for an operating base closer?

I'm not denying it's a setback for the British. But I think you're underestimating the British and their worldwide reach.

Spain is a devestated country with people who definitely don't want another war at their turf and have trouble enough getting enough food.

Spain needed large imports of food which came from oversea's imports and IRL demanded huge concessions from the Germans to join the Axis. The Germans were unwilling to have another dead corps shackled to hem. With such a concentration on a Mediterranean sideshow the Germans won't be able to do as well at Barbarossa as in history. I'd doubt they would go for it.

OTOH the British shortly after Dunkirk sent an armoured division to Egypt as they didn't conceive any threat on their own soil. I'm sure they could destroy any Axis forces outside continental Europe eventually. The Allies have complete naval superiority, no way that a coalition of Spanish, German and Italian forces will manage to defeat the British.

The British will lose Gibralter however if Germany get's involved in Spain in any way. Shipping through the Strait will be impossible with Axis artillery on the approaches. Gibralter would be become just another Wake island for the British if they would cling to it.

I however don't think that'll be such an enormous, impossible to overcome problem for the Allies.

Doc Dynamo wrote:

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I agree. There's nothing vital to Britain in the Med theater until you reach the Iraq/Iran oil fields. Malta is of limited importance. Even Egypt is expendable.

Britain might have been substantially better off if losing Gibraltar forced them into a defensive stance in the Med, avoiding their Greek disaster and poised to pounce on vulnerable Spain once the opportunity (Barbarossa? US entry into the War) presents itself.

Even the oilfields in Iraq/Iran are of limited importance. They're not that big yet and the majority of British oil is coming from the USA anyways.

You're also right about Malta, early WWII the British even conceived evacuating Malta as they thought they couldn't hold it, so close to Italy as it was. Taking Malta will ease Rommel's supplylines but there still isn't enough capacity in ports in N-Africa to be able to supply more than a handfull of divisions well.

I could easily see a situation in the Iberian peninsula like during the Napoleontic wars, except perhaps for a neutral Portugal.