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One thing to correct in this scenario immediately is that there is no Russian Kh-41!. The ASM-MSS or air-launched 3M80E1 never got past the developmental stage and is not a weapon available to Russian Naval Aviation - no matter how popular the photo's of ASM-MSS mockups alongside Su-33's are on the net!. The only air-launched anti-ship missile available to the Su-33's would be the direct-flight supersonic Kh-31AM or the Kh-35.

Given that the French group have the situational awareness, through the Hawkeyes, to track and counter any Russian movement it is difficult to imagine a situation where a Russian Flanker strike ends in anything other than multiple kill markings painted on Rafale airframes and a smug group of Aeronavale pilots!. The Russian Flag would have to know that too.

The only real striking power from the Kuznetov group comes from its long-range missiles. A screen of 1 Slava plus a Sov and a pair of Udaloys means a dozen P-700's from the carrier plus another dozen P-1000's from the Slava. Without Legenda targetting support this means the offensive reach of the Kuznetsov group is the surface search range of the Ka-31's embarked and the only tactic that makes sense for them would be to maintain a maximum-effort defensive screen with air ops optimised for the maximum possible CAP coverage and SAMs up.

The French have the tactical suprise and mobility. They can see the Russians dispositions and manoevres as they happen with little risk of counter-detection or, at least, counter-tracking. If they can stay out of that Ka-31 radar coverage they have little to fear from the Russian fleet. In reality, with a Forbin and E-2 coverage, in the French group the have little to fear from 2 dozen heavyweight antiship missiles as they should be pretty easy targets for Aster30!. The problem that the French have is in striking power. A salvo attack of a dozen AM-39's will achieve little once in the Russian Missile Engagement Zone and closing on a Flanker CAP just skirting its own MEZ, even for the Rafales, is going to be twitchy...doing it in an Exocet-laden, and decidedly subsonic, Super Etendard is going to require a pair that go le clang!.

So summary the fight is a totally defensive Russian group that cant draw a bead on the French contrasted with a French group that hasnt the teeth to press its information advantage...unless of course the French le cheat and swap one of their escorts for an SSN!.