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I think post EG construction should be limited to repair of existing damaged ships, finish off ships that can be gotten in fleet service no later than March 1916 and after that nothing but U-boats til the end of the war.

Unless Jim wants to introduce another POD (his privilege, of course) sooner or later British numbers and firepower will pen the Baron into port. By no later than June 1916, the RN will chase to remnants of the HSF behind their fortifications. At that point, the Baron should stand down his fleet (except for U-boats) and integrate the crews (and whatever other assets as are useful) into the Heer. No point leaving the crews sitting idle in their barracks. Make artillery batteries or railroad repair units of them. By that time, the Baron will have introduced enough deltas into the mix to allow the CP to win a war of mutual exhaustion. The interdiction of Archangel will shorten the war in the east by three to five months. Brest-Litovsk in mid-to-late 1917. Even if USW is commenced in June of 1916, the entry of the US (driven mostly by USW) is delayed sixteen months assuming OTL pigheadedness. That means the US does not even enter the war until August 1918 and no doughboys show up in numbers prior to September 1919. If USW is eschewed, maybe the US never enters the war.

This leaves a much larger window of opportunity - late 1917 or early 1918 to early 1919 for the Heer to win the war. France and Britain are fighting alone against Germany. Even if Italy breaks neutrality, the KuK can contain them if Russia and Serbia are out of the war. Britain, forced to expend more resources than OTL in maintaining sea dominance, will be unable to hold as much of the line as they did in OTL. The French will be stretched further. With their industrial heartland occupied, the French will feel compelled to launch the same number of half-baked offensives as OTL and Craone goes down as in OTL. The "Peace Offensive" of 1918 breaks the French and forces Britain to evacuate the Continent. The Heer marches down the Champs Elysee and a humiliating peace is dictated to the French much along the lines of Brest-Litovsk.

Say it is August 1918. Russia, France, and Serbia are out of the war under humiliating terms. The US shows no imminent sign of entering the war. Germany is unable to get at Britain and Britain is equally unable to strike Germany. If Germany offers Britain any reasonable terms (territorial status quo ante and nominal reparations to Belgium), Britain has no reason to continue and a whole lot of reasons to accept.

Baron Letters cannot change the central fact: Germany is a continental power and win live and die by the success or failure of the Heer. The Baron has made a substantial and measurable contribution to the war effort and the KM has risen in the estimation of the government and people.

Germany really cannot think much about further naval construction until 1920 or so. They need - beyond anything else - to get a harvest in and break the food shortage in Germany. Secondly, the influenza of 1918-1919 must be weathered. Finally, Germany and A-H must immediately begin integration of annexed territories. In the short term, the Baron will replace Tirpitz and have the KM do what it can to meet the short term needs.

By 1922, Germany will be back on an even keel - financially and socially. At that point, maybe a new fleet - in line with diplomatic considerations - can be considered.

Britain's long-term policy of balance on the continent will be a shambles and they will have to look to their "Castles of Steel" to fend off fears of a German invasion. But Britain will be as financially wrecked as in OTL if not more so. On the other hand, Germany will be economically growing again by the early 1920s. If Britain and Germany cannot work out a modus vivendi, a new naval arms race is inevitable and this time Germany - with a more robust economy and less threat from land competitors) will be easily able to outbuild the British.