What changes would you expect to see if Hitler had decided for whatever reason not to support Mussolini in North Africa and no German ground forces were deployed?
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PMN1 |
Hitler does not support Mussolini in North Africa |
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Posts: 3239 ( 2-Jan-2008 20:43:56) |
What changes would you expect to see if Hitler had decided for whatever reason not to support Mussolini in North Africa and no German ground forces were deployed? |
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Tiornu |
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Posts: 6873 ( 2-Jan-2008 23:40:18) Corn Boss |
Is this a naval question? Let's keep it that way.
The logical result would include a lack of Italian support in Russia. The Italians lost way more personnel in Russia than in North Africa, but Italian naval commitment there was minor. |
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PMN1 |
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Posts: 3240 ( 2-Jan-2008 23:54:08) |
I put it in this section as the results could be sea, air and land.
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Tiornu |
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Posts: 6874 ( 3-Jan-2008 01:18:55) Corn Boss |
We'll limit the discussion to naval matters.
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aghart1 |
SE Asia | ||
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Registered Member
Posts: 4 ( 3-Jan-2008 01:56:23) |
I do not forsee much change in the naval situation in the Med, the Royal Navy still has to deal with Italian Navy and the will suffer the same historical
losses in the defence of Crete, and the loss of HMS Barham to U Boat attack plus the damage to Queen Elizabeth and Valiant in Alexandria harbour. Where this
could make a difference is SE Asia! Without the arrival of Rommel & the Afrika Corps The British 8th Army and desert air force would have been totally
victorious by the middle of 1941 at the very latest.
The British land and air forces, experienced, confident, ( against the Italians, true, but victory is victory) with no enemy or threat close at hand and already halfway to Singapore. The British were not blind to the threat from Japan and would now have the resources to react to it! I see at least 2 infantry divisions and an armoured brigade together with Hurricane fighter sqns, Tomahawk ground attack fighter sqn's and some bombers sent to Singapore & Malaya before the end of 1941. I can't see any heavy naval units being released from the Med but I do see extra destroyers sent through the Suez canal to boost the escorts for Force Z. Hurricane fighter squadrons providing air cover over Force Z? history is changed.
Last Edited By: aghart1
3-Jan-2008 02:00:48.
Edited 1 times.
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Creeping Death1929 |
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Posts: 931 ( 4-Jan-2008 05:08:38) |
aghart1 wrote:They would have had a nasty surprise by the up to 36 Zeros that would have been escorting the bombers if Force Z had fighter cover. |
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aghart1 |
Force Z | ||
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Registered Member
Posts: 5 ( 4-Jan-2008 21:49:08) |
Creeping Death1929 wrote:
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Creeping Death1929 |
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Posts: 932 ( 6-Jan-2008 08:02:34) |
aghart1 wrote:Japanese recon planes managed to shadow US carrier formations for some time without being shot down, and they were the best of the best for fleet defense at the time. There were several Japanese planes that had sighted Force Z, an E13A from Kinu, two E13As from Suzuya and Kumano and subs I-65 and I-58 on the 9th. On the 10th, a C5M found Tenedos at 0830, and then Lt. Hoashi's G3M sighted Repulse's Walrus seaplane and then Force Z, with a signal being sent immediately at 1015. The Walrus heading back to Repulse led the first bombers straight to Force Z at 1102. aghart1 wrote:The Zeros were escorting the bombers, but turned back when the contact point was missed and by then it was established there was no fighter cover. If there had been fighter cover, the subs and recon aircraft would notice, and the Zeros would form a close escort. aghart1 wrote:In the later stages of Malaya, 51 Hurricane IIBs were sent, and arrived with pilots of 232, 17, 135 and 136 squadrons. A large squadron of Brewster Buffalos was already at Malaya. In the first engagement, on 20 January, three hurricanes were lost to three Ki43s, which had similar performance to Zeros. Later, on 22 January, 9 Zeros escorting 52 bombers engaged 12? Hurricanes, losing 5 Hurricanes to 2 Zeros and an unknown number of bombers. Later, 48 Hurricane IIBs arrived with experienced pilots of 232 and 258 squadrons. On 31 January, some of those Hurricanes engaged Ki 43s, losing 4 Hurricanes, 1 shot down, and three crash landing after severe damage, and 1 Ki 43 downed. |
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aghart1 |
Fighter escort | ||
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Registered Member
Posts: 6 ( 6-Jan-2008 21:57:55) |
Sadly there is very little information available regarding the Japanese fighter escort. The most detailed account of the Japanese assault on Force Z is
the book Battleship which was published in 1977 and the authors had used testomanies from surviving Japaense to give a most thorough account. Unfortunatley
this book does not even mention the fighter escort. It does however show in detail that the Japanese bombers arrived in "spits and spats" over a
period of an hour and a half after the British ships had been sighted. Most of the bombers had reached a point "level" with Singapore itself before
the ships were spotted..
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Creeping Death1929 |
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Posts: 934 ( 7-Jan-2008 00:17:40) |
It still doesn't change the fact that if the British had fighter cover, the recon planes and the subs would likely notice that and the Japanese would have
the fighters escort the planes closely.
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P3D |
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Posts: 699 ( 7-Jan-2008 01:34:56) |
The British forces will operate at the end of their supply lines, so conquering Libya will still take some time. The Italian Navy will cover the evacuation of
most of their African troops. Also, Italy will start to concentrate on building defenses sooner. The end result is significantly lower Axis manpower losses
that achieved essentially nothing.
Churchill with his fixations might demand raids on Italy/Greece itself. but any preparations for an European invasion will be stopped by the Japanese attack. I guess Torch will happen more or less historical, but the American troops would have no significant combat experience, which might count in the invasion of Italy - but there will be like 300+ more tanks and 200,000+ infantry available for Mussolini, making even the invasion of Sicily problematic. Strategic bombing would be a bit more difficult with less Mediterranean bases in 1943, and would have to concentrate on Italy instead of Germany. In this case, Italy would stay longer in the war. There is like four divisions and a Rommel more against the Soviet Union , experienced troops, and no reinforcement drain in Africa, which balances the lack of Italian forces against the USSR. The slightly higher Axis industrial production in 1943 and more fighters available for Germany would slow down the Soviet advance of 1943-44. D-day still happens, and the Allies reach Berlin first. More units available for the Asian theater means that Singapore is defended, the IJN is denied the Indian Ocean. The invasion of Burma would be stopped sooner. Not needed in the Med, also more RN units (and Aircraft Carriers) are available in Asia. Singapore would base US and UK subs, and would raid Japanese convoys delivering oil from Java and Borneo. Japan contained sooner, and RN units available, some USN resources would be diverted to the Army. However. A possibility is that with less German troops in Italy the surrender would mean that Germany would not be able to stop the surrender, and Germany could not place any significant defensive in the Apennines. German troops would have to withdraw to the Alpes. This might be followed by Hungary switching sides, but Germany would put out any resistance there - if Germany failed staging a coup earlier there. There might or might not be an invasion of Southern France, capturing Marseilles and linking up with Italy, depending on the invasion timetable. Also, some Italian army units would be available against Germany. Depending on the timetable, if Italy was invaded early 1943, followed by the surrender, the Allied invasion of France would happen late 1943. More German coups against Hitler - one might even succeed. |
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aghart1 |
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Posts: 7 ( 7-Jan-2008 01:42:48) |
Creeping Death1929 wrote: Your missing the point. The Japanese fighters were not with the bombers when the location of Force Z was confirmed. Could any Japanese commander "assume" that the British would not scramble fighters from Singapore and so send the Zero's home for an early tea? Could any Japanese commander "assume" that no fighters had arrived at Kuantan airfield? the "theory" that the zero's turned for home because Force Z had no air cover is plain daft. The Zero's were simply too far away from Kuantan to get there before the action was over. Enough defending fighters ( and we are assuming at least 2 Sqns of Hurricanes due to the theoretical availability of aircraft and pilots from North Africa ( even if faced with Zero's ) could disrupt the air attacks enough to save the ships. Like I said history is changed, HMS Prince of Wales & HMS Repulse ( together with the HMS Indomitable ) leading the ABDA fleet at the Java Sea. All because Hitler did not support Mussolini in Africa. Ah well it's a nice thought, but back to reality
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Creeping Death1929 |
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Posts: 939 ( 8-Jan-2008 02:26:34) |
It would take an hour for the British fighters to get over the fleet from Singapore. Kuantan airfield was deserted, and reconnaissance showed that. Had it
not been, the Japanese would have changed what they did. You can't have one side change and expect the other side to not change to meet it.
Lets say the British do have fighter cover. Lt. Hoashi and the other recon planes and subs notice. They inform Saigon of it. The Japanese send more fighters and keep the bombers together. Instead of facing aircraft in half a dozen groups, they face 51 torpedo planes and 34 bombers escorted by 27+ fighters attacking together. If Pow, Repulse, and Indomitable were at Java Sea, maybe Hiei and Kirishima with Soryu, Hiryu, Kaga, and Akagi, 2 CA, 1 CL and 7 DDs would make an appearance. They were close historically, and had sunk Pecos, Modjokerto, and Edsall in the area on 1 March. Kongo and Haruna were also in the area to intercept shipping fleeing Java. There was a total of 4 CV, 1 CVL, 4 BB, 13 CA, 6 CL and 50+ DDs that the Japanese had in the area historically. |
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aghart1 |
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Posts: 8 ( 9-Jan-2008 02:09:41) |
Creeping Death1929 wrote:I doubt that in 1941 any submerged Japanese submarine would have been able to know if Force Z had any fighter escort or not. Also lets get back to the thread. We are assuming that Hitler does not send help to Italy in North Africa, and as a result the war in the western desert ends early thus realeasing land and air forces to be sent sent from Africa to Malaya. The only thing that is different from historical reality is that British Land & Air power is stronger than it really was in 1941. Had Hurricane fighters been sent to Malaya it is likely that they would have been based at Kuantan, Khota Bharu and probably Alor Star airfields with the Buffalo's concentrated at Singapore. Most of what actually happend historically would not change. Force Z would head north, they would be spotted by the 3 float planes from the Japanese Cruisers, even if Hurricane fighters had been above the British ships at that time ( not definate as it was almost dark when they were spotted) it would be assumed that they had been spotted and the operation called off just as it happened for real. A surfaced Japanese submarine reported that the ships were heading south ( no change here) but the signal informing Saigon that Force Z was heading to Kuantan never reached the Japanese High command ( again no change from historical fact). This is the important bit Creeping Death, the the Japanese never knew where Force Z was, they had no idea where the British were until Lt Hosia spotted them off Kuantan. So they would not change what they did because nothing had changed from the historical reality, they expected Force Z to have a fighter escort if the ships were within range of British airfields. Nothing has changed from historical reality. The Japanese thought that Force Z was heading straight for Singapore and had no idea they were heading for Kuantan. The flight plan for the Recce aircraft would not change, Hurricane fighters or no Hurricane fighters Nothing has changed. The signal from Lt Hosia reporting the position of Force Z off Kuantan was received in Saigon but was not picked up by many of the strike force, and so Lt Hoshia was ordered to abandon codes and send a continues signal to guide planes to the target. This is why the attack planes only arrived in dribs and drabs. Japanese communications in this operation were to put it bluntly " total rubbish" your assumption that the high command could instantly change things and order air units to do this and do that is also wrong. Nothing historically has changed. On the morning of 10th December the Japanese have no idea what aircraft are at Kuantan, Any information suggesting a the lack of fighters at Kuantan on 9th December is irrlaevent on10th December. Kuantan is only 150 miles from Singapore and any enemy would expect fighters to be sent to help Force Z. No fighters now does not mean they won't arrive 5 minutes from now. The Japanese bombers would have been in exactly the same position, ( spread far and wide and unable to mount a coordinated attack) the Japanese fighters would ( I'm not sure anybody actually knows where the hell they were) would still be too far away to intervene. The only thing that has changed is that ( in this changed scenario) RAF Hurricane fighters would have been at Kuantan and they would have been in an ideal position to disrupt the attack by the 9 Torpedo bombers that crippled POW. That alone justifies my claim! history is changed, the ships might still have been sunk that day ( though I doubt it). POW at Java Sea might not have changed the outcome but it would have still been a change of history.
Last Edited By: aghart1
9-Jan-2008 16:29:30.
Edited 4 times.
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PhilJD |
CAP v's Cover | ||
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Posts: 570 (10-Jan-2008 01:08:30) |
There were some aircraft allocated to cover the ships originally - but the call was never made to bring them in until it was far too late, they arrived in time
to 'chase' away the remaining Japanese bomber(s) who were watching the sinking ships. Phillips had not wanted to break radio silence before hand then
guess got caught up in what was happening (IIRC, been a while since I read Battleship).
If there were more available it does not mean they would automatically be on CAP (especially given endurance considerations) but more likely would be 'remembered' quicker as they would have a 'larger' presence in the mind, so to speak, so might save the ships sinking initially (although not sure Repulse once hit by so many in so little time), but given PoW's reduced speed she might not make it away in time to save herself. regards Phil
Regards
Phil
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aghart1 |
Let's not confuse things | ||
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Registered Member
Posts: 11 (10-Jan-2008 01:33:57) |
PhilJD wrote: Phil. please remember. that this thread is "if Hitler failed to support Mussolini in North Africa". The SE Asia element is based on my belief that the UK would thus be victorious in North Africa by Mid 1941 at the latest and so be able to send fighter aircraft ( Hawker Hurricanes) to Malaya and Singapore before Dec 1941. We are all aware of what actually happened in Malaya but we are considering a "what if" situation.
Last Edited By: aghart1
10-Jan-2008 02:10:24.
Edited 1 times.
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PhilJD |
Confusing things | ||
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Posts: 571 (10-Jan-2008 14:15:09) |
Not at all - my point being that even if there was additional fighter availability in Malaysia at the time - it probably would not be flying CAP above Force Z
and hence would have to be called in when needed which would take the hour to arrive.
regards Phil
Regards
Phil
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