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Only the Shokaku and Zuikaku were a factor seriously missed at "MI", since these were the IJN best carriers with the largest aircraft cappacity.

Yes and no. Certainly these two wee missed; but had the IJN consolidated its other carriers on the Midway opperation they would have had the necessary planes and decks to win the naval battle. Kido Butai + Junyo, Ryujo & Zuiho + 6th Kokutai = 337 planes and more than enough decks to assure that it could maintain both an active strong CAP + land and launch strikes.

The presence of these two would probably have been decisive in the battle, since it would have meant Nagumo would have outnumbered his opponent with two to one flattop.

Had Nagumo held back 5th CarDiv from the initial attack on Midway to maintain its strike capability as a precaution against the possibility USN carriers where in the area, then he would have been very well positioned to win a decisive victory at the naval battle of Midway no mater what the USN did. (Frankly even having just Zuikaku present in this role would have provided the strike group edge needed for Nagumo to vastly improve on his OTL results.)

Had he used all 3 of his CarDiv in the first strike on Midway he would have been in only a similar position as the OTL; hindered in his ability to both conduct strikes and CAP in the face of constant harassment from piecemeal US strikes all morning. It is likely that his ship and plane casualties would be much less than in the OTL but he would still have had a very hard time getting off a strike on the US carriers until after the US strikes stopped.

It was a both a lack of an advantage in number of planes as well as the limited tactical flexibility of having to use the same 4 decks for CAP as well as for strikes that left Nagumo so vulnerable. Had he had even just Ryujo and Zuiho (with 12- 18 A6M's taken from 6th Kokutai) operating with Kido Butai Nagumo would have had all the decks needed to allow him to maintain both a strong active CAP & to launch a powerful division sized strike against the US carriers as soon as they were spotted.

but another fleet carrier division like CarDiv 5, if dedicated to searching for, and striking, the American carriers first, might have saved Nagumo's bacon,

Agreed

but only if the USN carriers could have been hit before launching their strikes.

Disagree strongly here. Your insistence that the only way Nagumo can defeat the USN carriers is to lauch at them before they launch does not make sense.

Even if the US attacks happen as in the OTL a Kido Butai of 6 CV's with one CarDiv not taking part in the first Midway attack would have had the decks, planes and oppertunity to lauch a strike at the US carriers as soon as they were spotted (at 7:40 AM) regardless of what the USN did. Nagumo would not have had to delay his attack while rearming his planes to do this; they would be sitting on the decks of CarDiv5 ready to go with anti-ship weapons.

Yes KB would have had to weather the US attacks that it did in the OTL and KB is likely to suffer at least some damage as the result of the US carrier attacks but KB would have already launched a division sized strike at TF 16's 2 carriers. Such a strike (likely to be of 18 dive bombers and 18 torpedo bombers escorted by 9 Zeros) was likely to cause substancial damage to either or both of TF 16's carriers and thus leave the IJN with local superiority even if it suffered a lost carrier or 3 to the US strike.

As for defensive capabilities; KB would have 6 decks to recycle their CAP thus avoiding the OTL opening that allowed the US dive bombers their oppertunity to kill 3 IJN CV's. It doesn't matter how many fighters "on average" KB had aloft during the attacks, it matters that the CAP is properly positioned and armed at all times to avoid the very type of attack that cost the IJN 3 CV's in 10 minutes. The more free decks you have the easier it is to do that.

Neither was it the requirement to launch and recover CAP that kept Nagumo from launching strikes against the American carriers

We disagree strongly here also. Look at the carrier opperations time line in the back of Shattered Sword; it too a lot of effort fron all 4 IJN CV's for Nagumo to keep all those fighters on CAP. Nagumo could not launch a strike if he needed to constantly recycle his CAP in this way. The piecemeal US attacks forced him to constantly recycle his CAP and thus limited his oppertunities to launch a strike. with only 4 decks the best Nagumo could have done during this time was perhaps a one carrier sized strike at the US carriers (while the other 3 IJN CV kept up the CAP), but since the IJN saw division sized strikes as the best way to attack this was seen as sub-optimal as long as KB was able to so easily fight off the US attacks.

It was not numbers, but doctrine and the technical failings of Japanese fighter direction capabilities and thus fleet air defense that doomed Nagumo's force.

Those things certainly played a big role but they were not insurmountible had the IJN brought enough decks and planes to the battle.

but the need to neutralize Midway's air power

Midway's airpower had been eliminated the second the last of the Midway based attack planes turned back towards Midway after their fruitless and costly attack on KB that morning. At that moment Midway had shot it wad and ceased to be a threat to KB and it could be completely ignored until after the US carriers were delt with. The follow on strike against Midway was not needed to deal with Midway's airforce, but rather with its shore defenses in the prelude to invasion. Nagumo's first strike should have been 100% focused on ONLY the airfield, aircraft and aircraft facilities instead of trying to reduced the entire island's defenses in prep for the invasion.

and poor judgment on Nagumo's and his air staff's part.

I agree this played a role but then the whole plan was astinker so...

Having Ryujo and Junyo, with their very limited launch capability wouldn't have helped much

I did not suggest including Junyo (too slow) but rather Ryujo and Zuiho. These 2 could meet KB's OTL top speed of 26 knots easily and would have provided additional free deck to launch CAP, ASW and search planes from. You do not think that these capability would have benefited the IJN here?