Iran and the straights of Hormuz in The Politics Of War Forum

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Iran and the straights of Hormuz

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PMN1		#61	[-]
Posts: 5868 Feb 1 12 12:19 PM Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	I've put in red an interesting bit http://www.telegraph.co.u...-attacks-on-US-soil.html Relations between Iran and the West have suffered a sharp deterioration as Tehran blames foreign agents of waging a campaign of sabotage against its nuclear programme. James Clapper, the US director of National Intelligence, said that a plot to kill the Saudi ambassador in Washington demonstrated Iran had taken a new tact as it sought to respond to convert threats. It “shows that some Iranian officials — probably including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei — have changed their calculus and are now more willing to conduct an attack in the United States in response to real or perceived US actions that threaten the regime,” he said. Mr Clapper also told the Senate Intelligence Committee that American targets overseas were more vulnerable. The committee will be briefed on America’s overall intelligence assessment on Iran at a session on Wednesday. Mr Clapper said while Tehran is “keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons,” Washington officials concluded “we do not know” the outcome of the programme. Iran has blamed the United States and Israel for a series of mysterious developments, including the apparently targeted killing of yet another Iranian nuclear scientist in Tehran in January, as well as a crippling cyber attack on the country’s largest uranium enrichment facility. Meanwhile Iranian opposition activists raised fears over the vulnerability of its nuclear facilities to attack yesterday claiming that an F-14 fighter jet was shot down by its own air defence systems during a suicide attack on the Bushehr atomic reactor. Major Ali Reza Karimayi, the pilot and a co-pilot, were killed last week when the US-made fighter crashed shortly after take-off into the Gulf, according to a brief report in the state media. However the opposition website Peiknet said that the jet was shot down, not the casualty of mechanical failure as the state media had reported. The fact that the pilots did not eject pointed to the plane being shot down not encountering difficulties. It also said the fighter had taken off from the 8th Airforce Base near the eastern city of Isfahan. Although a media blackout had been imposed there was speculation in the military that the pilots had attempted to attack the plant. Nuclear experts have expressed a variety of concerns over the safety of the Bushehr reactor which has been built with Russian assistance. Although it is designed to feed energy into Iran’s nuclear grid, Western intelligence agencies have expressed fears that sabotage or seismic activity could damage the facility. Iran retains a fleet of US-manufactured aircraft that it bought before the Islamic revolution of 1979. Sanctions against Iran’s controversial nuclear programme have taken a heavy toll on Iran’s ability to maintain the fleet. Iran has suffered a string of serious air accidents over the past decade that have cost more than 900 lives. "It's a fez. I wear a fez now. Fezzes are cool"
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Nightwatch2		#62	[-]
Posts: 13072 Feb 1 12 5:49 PM Air Boss Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	An interesting report that is almost identical to an earlier report from some years ago. I wonder if they're recycling old news? In any case, the nuclear facility is defended by SAM systems with a free-fire MEZ. I suspect the F-14 strayed into the MEZ by accident and were smoked. Maybe the problems we face today are there because the people who work for a living are outnumbered by those who vote for a living.
pppet		#63	[-]
Posts: 609 Feb 2 12 2:34 PM Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	Now cutting through the verbiage let us ask the only worthwhile question When does the balloon go up ? Now ? But being so early it will not help Obama in his re-election bid in November and December. Wait till September ? But then in seven months time who knows what can happen to throw everything on a new bearing. The suspense must be immense ! Perhaps the Americans and the Israelis are hoping furiously that an Islamic Revolutionary Guard (all charged up on Allah) in his motorised cockleshell will take it upon himself to charge the USS Stennis or the USS Lincoln and relieve the awful pressure !
Nightwatch2		#64	[-]
Posts: 13072 Feb 2 12 6:35 PM Air Boss Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	pppet wrote: Now cutting through the verbiage let us ask the only worthwhile question When does the balloon go up ? Now ? But being so early it will not help Obama in his re-election bid in November and December. Wait till September ? But then in seven months time who knows what can happen to throw everything on a new bearing. The suspense must be immense ! Perhaps the Americans and the Israelis are hoping furiously that an Islamic Revolutionary Guard (all charged up on Allah) in his motorised cockleshell will take it upon himself to charge the USS Stennis or the USS Lincoln and relieve the awful pressure ! Obama is too busy executing a strategic retreat and negotiating the surrender of the entire region to even contemplate military action. Won't happen. Maybe the problems we face today are there because the people who work for a living are outnumbered by those who vote for a living.
pppet		#65	[-]
Posts: 609 Feb 3 12 2:29 PM Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	Then the only conclusion to draw is that the Israeli tail is wagging the American dog ! Or is it that the US is doing this whole Cecil B.DeMille show in glorious technicolour as a means to placate the Israelis so that they do not do anything unilaterally and force an "either or..." choice on the US ? A choice the US does not want to make or, more worryingly, cannot make ?
jim3au		#66	[-]
Posts: 4488 Feb 3 12 7:37 PM Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	pppet, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei made a far from concillatory speech on this Friday. Unfortunately the exact wording seems to vary according to which news service is used. He did seem to promise aid and support to any group confronting Israel. He seemed to promise retaliation for Western sanctions. He seemed to promise retaliation for an any Israeli attack. His speech did seem to harden up a softening oil price. In the English versions of online Iranian newspapers, there was an entirely different take on Khamenei's speech. Basically it reassured Iranians that the revolution would continue regardless what obstacles were placed in its way. There was mainly talk about retaliation for futuire actions and assistance to groups opposing the Zionist Regime. Business as usual. Last Edited By: jim3au Feb 5 12 6:40 AM. Edited 1 times.
pppet		#67	[-]
Posts: 609 Feb 4 12 3:05 PM Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	Well, I never expected to hear a sermon advocating " good thoughts, good words and good deeds" from this latest leader of the whole bunch of bigots and misanthropes who have been infesting Iran since the last 1400 years. But this reaction is to be expected from the Iranians. But what is going to be the action of the West ? Is America ready to start another war just when it is winding two wars which has lasted a decade, cost it trillions of dollars and thousands of lives, with no clear cut results in it favour ? Is it mentally and financially prepared for another long war with a fresh enemy with a similiar mental make-up as its earlier adversaries ? What makes it confident that this will be a short and sharp war ? Specially when its earlier two editions of the same game have gone spectacularly wrong ! And why was nothing like this done when Pakistan was proliferating nuclear and missile technologies like mad in the 1990s ? (and now has a 100 bombs) Was it because those missiles and bombs were going to be targeted at Bombay and Delhi and not at Tel Aviv, Beersheba and Eliat ? Little brown heathens killing each other off, no skin of our nose ! Was it because we did not and still do not have a strong lobby in the US like the Israelis ?
jim3au		#68	[-]
Posts: 4488 Feb 7 12 8:08 PM Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	pppet, concerning your third last paragraph, it seems tyo have been in the 1970s that Pakistan brought home scientists from abroad to conduct their weapons program, if they are to be believed. It seems that about this time there may have been some stealing technology too. As far as I can remember, the West did nothing. I can't remember the West doing too much when India exploded their first test bomb [1974?]. I remember some argument from India that the bomb technology was only going to be used for peaceful purposes. The proliferating in the 1990s is another thing all together. At least in the 1990s and possibly before and after, Pakistan semi-officially seems to have been selling nuclear weapons technology to a range of states but certainly including Libya and possibly North Korea. The men who did that are not being held to account for this so one could assume that it was official Pakistan policy. I only point out that there are two distinct issues. How did Pakistan develop nuclear weapons technology so fast and so cheaply? How did Pakistan get away with selling nuclear weapons technology so long to so many? I agree, if this is what you are suggesting, that Pakistan was seen by the West as a peaceful country trying to Westernise her society and develop a democracy and no threat to any nation. In some respects she is still seen that way. It is only during the Obama Administration that any Western nation has attempted to take Pakistan to task for state sponsored terrorism. It might be my faulty memory, but it seems to me that only over the last decade has India made the effort [or been able to?] to track the perpetrators of atrocities all the way back to levels of government within Pakistan.
jim3au	This is Different	#69	[-]
Posts: 4488 Feb 7 12 8:21 PM Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	Iran's parliament summons Ahmadinejad on economic policy Obama has only recently stated that Iranian policy is hard to track because there is so much competition within Iran amongst different groups. Parliament has never summoned a leader before it since the 1979 revolution. This could only happen if it was allowed by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. In my ignorance, I presumed that Ahmadinejad would not sneeze without Khamenei's permission. Ahmadinejad was put into power by the religious bosses who ruled that the elections were free and fair and them put down the demonstrations against the electoral rort.
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jim3au	India is Key to Iran Beating the Sanctions	#70	[-]
Posts: 4488 Feb 7 12 8:31 PM Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	India already is the largest single buyer of Iranian crude and has said that it will expand purchases. Why this then? Exclusive: Iran defaults on rice payments to India
jim3au	These Sanctions sre Being Supported by Greed and Opportunism	#71	[-]
Posts: 4488 Feb 10 12 10:49 AM Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/08/us-iran-asia-trade-idUSTRE8170Q420120208 I do not understand how the sanctions are being as effective as they are. Iran has over 70 billion in foreign currency reserves. Iran should be able to barter their oil for what they want. This is what brokers do for commissions. Even infrastructure projects with India and Pakistan are on hold. China cares very little for US foreign policy but their efforts to tighten the screws on Iran for a much better deal are giving every indication of really hurting Iran. "Ahmadinejad's economic policies that have seen subsidies for basic goods cut and replaced with direct payments to families" are hated by the community. Does not matter much, apparently because in the upcoming election, opposition candidates have been persuaded not to stand. Personally, I like Ahmadinejad's economic policies. The sanctions though are really hurting and they are damaging him. I care for Ahmadinejad as much as few hundred mosquito bites. Very irritating. His patron, the Supreme Leader Khamenei, has been allowing criticism. He is at least distancing himself from Ahmadinejad. Maybe the Indians and Chinese will start trading more fairly with Iran soon and thus circumvent the sanctions. If the sanctions are kept tight and maybe nudged a little tighter from time to time, things are really going to get tough in Iran. I do not know what Obama is doing exactly but these sanctions have the appearance of being more effective than any we have thus far seem applied. [and Russia, China, India and some other heavy weights are not supporting them!] Last Edited By: jim3au Feb 10 12 8:52 PM. Edited 1 times.
Nightwatch2		#72	[-]
Posts: 13072 Feb 10 12 7:13 PM Air Boss Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	jim3au wrote: I do not understand how the sanctions are being as effective as they are. From the daily KGS Nightwatch (no relationship ) "Iran: Special comment. The evidence continues to pour in that the US banking sanctions are imposing large penalties on Iranian consumers. Iran can still sell its oil, but cannot get paid and cannot pay for imports of rice, palm oil, tea and other imported foodstuffs and commodities. Iranian companies are in default. Today, Indian authorities reported Iran defaulted on a 90-day note to pay for the import of 200,000 tons of rice from India that was ordered last October and November.Iran also defaulted on payments for shipments of Indian tea and for 400,000 tons of Ukrainian wheat, some of which is aboard ships in Iranian ports. Ship owners refuse to allow the wheat to be offloaded. Iran also has defaulted in paying for imports of Indian tea. Ten ships are in Iranian ports but refuse to permit offloading because the Iranian rial is not negotiable as a medium of international exchange. In the past week, Iran has offered to barter gold bullion in overseas vaults and filled oil tankers for basic commodities. *Comment:* The collapse of the Iranian rial plus the refusal of banks and companies to deal with Iran are having serious impact. The price of everything in Iran is rising. The sanctions against Iranian banks that rely on the US dollar for international trade are proving to be devastating for everyday Iranians." the article goes on but the bottom line is that the banking restrictions have tied up their currency so they can't pay for anything. Their economy is crashing. Which is - to diverge slightly - a very dangerous course of action to push onto them in and of itself which could trigger a war. Interesting times.............. Maybe the problems we face today are there because the people who work for a living are outnumbered by those who vote for a living.
IcelofAngeln		#73	[-]
Posts: 5923 Feb 10 12 11:18 PM Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	"Which is - to diverge slightly - a very dangerous course of action to push onto them in and of itself which could trigger a war. Interesting times.............." I seem to recall sanctions involving oil and scrap metal against another regime we didn't care for......
pppet		#74	[-]
Posts: 609 Feb 11 12 12:18 PM Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	Yes. The parallels are obvious. But the difference is the Japanese at least could and did respond in an orthodox manner. If the mullahs respond, the opposing forces are so mismatched that they will have no choice but to use totally irregular forms. Which in my opinion means heavy civilian casualties. I have a gut feeling the mullahs will go, but they may bring down a Shia Gottedammerung down on us in Asia in the process.
pppet		#75	[-]
Posts: 609 Feb 14 12 1:10 PM Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	It seems that the mullahs are striking back. The two attacks in Delhi and Tbilisi, I mean. The Israelis used limpet bombs to kill Iranian scientists, the Iranians return the compliment by trying to kill Israeli diplomats by the same weapon Of course there could always be the conspiracy fanatics who will say the Mossad /CIA did this whole thing to justify nuking Iran ! And this will not be limited to only Muslims, there are some Westerners who may believe this too (specially if we go by the CT floating around for the WTC attack).
jim3au	More Sanctions Applied	#76	[-]
Posts: 4488 Mar 15 12 11:19 PM Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	From this Saturday, ordinary people will find it virtually impossible to send money to Iran. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17390456
jim3au	US Increasing Trade With Iran	#77	[-]
Posts: 4488 Mar 15 12 11:38 PM Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	Who would have thought it? The oil sanctions are providing a trading opportunity for US grain producers. http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/15/us-usa-wheat-iran-idUSBRE82E15U20120315 I do not understand how payments are being made or even if the payments are being made. I imagine the US Treasury is assisting the financing of these sales.
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Iran and the straights of Hormuz

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Exclusive: Iran defaults on rice payments to India